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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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275 FXUS65 KFGZ 201543 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 843 AM MST Sat Jul 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through next week. Temperatures will remain a bit above average through the weekend, with light winds. && .UPDATE...The forecast for today is a virtual repeat of Friday. A few morning clouds will burn off as the morning progresses with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. Storms will be most numerous along and east of a line extending from Prescott to Page where deeper moisture resides with activity remaining isolated and weak to the west of this line. Main threats today are lightning and localized flooding due to brief heavy downpours. It looks like we may get a surge of additional moisture overnight with better chances for heavy rain on Sunday, especially from the Mogollon Rim southward. && .PREV DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...Strong ridging continues over the western US, with the center slowly drifting westward through Monday. This places our region under a northerly flow regime aloft, not the typical monsoon orientation but enough moisture will remain in place for scattered thunderstorms each day. Moisture levels are highest along/south of the Mogollon Rim and this is where the better coverage of storms will be each day. Sunday afternoon and evening could be interesting south of the rim as northerly steering flow increases and higher CAPE values are also forecast. A few strong to severe storms and localized flooding is looking more likely Sunday evening in Yavapai/Gila counties. Outside of storms, it will stay hot through Monday though likely a bit short of warning criteria. Tuesday through Thursday - much of the guidance now forecasts the ridge to strengthen again and move back eastward toward Arizona. Although scattered storms are still forecast each day (especially along/south of the Mogollon Rim), the intensity of storms could be suppressed by the warmer mid level air in the ridge. We will also have to monitor the lower elevation areas for possible heat products if the ridge ends up as strong as some of the guidance shows. && .AVIATION...Saturday 20/12Z through Sunday 21/12Z...Outside of convective activity, VFR conditions and generally light winds. Saturday 18Z-03Z Sunday, expect SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA that may produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds. OUTLOOK...Sunday 21/12Z through Tuesday 23/12Z...Outside of any convective activity, expect VFR conditions and generally light winds. From 18Z-03Z each day, SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA may produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Look for daily afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms with greatest chances for activity between 11 AM MST - 7 PM MST. Above normal temperatures will persist through the weekend too. Expect generally light winds (5-15 mph), outside of gusty/erratic outflows. Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers/thunderstorms each afternoon/evening will continue through next week, along with above normal temperatures. Primary hazards expected to be gusty/erratic winds, heavy rain, and hail. Outside of storm driven winds, look for generally west through north winds 5-15 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...McCollum/JJ AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff