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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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039 FXUS65 KFGZ 141139 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 439 AM MST Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through next week as we enter into an active monsoon pattern. Temperatures will remain near average during this time with typical afternoon winds. && .DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure over the Four Corners will drive monsoonal moisture into Arizona. A decaying complex of thunderstorms over northern Mexico should also help to increase moisture across central Arizona today. As a result, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. 00 UTC HREF guidance shows the greatest instability (around 1000-2000 J/Kg) in areas south and west of the Mogollon Rim, with lesser CAPE values (200-700 J/Kg) to the north. PWATs also look to be maximized over these areas, with around 1.00- 1.20 inches. The greatest coverage and intensity of storms looks to mainly be near and south of the Mogollon Rim into Yavapai County, the greatest coverage is expected over these areas. Elsewhere, more isolated coverage is expected. Storms should initially fire over the higher terrain, but as outflows develop, storms should move southwestward off the terrain into the lower elevations. The main threats with storms today will be flash flooding and strong, gusty outflow winds. Monday...High pressure begins to shift further eastward slightly, allowing for more moisture to be advected northward. Greater coverage across northern Arizona looks to ensue as a result. However, any remnant debris clouds in the morning from earlier convection could limit/delay convective initiation. Latest hi-res guidance has the greatest chances for storms on Monday mainly along and north of the Mogollon Rim, before transitioning southward into the lower deserts. Tuesday through Saturday...High pressure continues to wobble in place through the week. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain as a result, with daily coverage largely dependent upon the exact position of the high and any influences from remnant convection. Temperatures look to remain near to slightly above normal through the period. Each days afternoon high temperatures look to vary from day to day as the high shifts, but showers and storms (and their resulting cloud cover) could easily result in cooler temperatures on some days. && .AVIATION...Sunday 14/12Z through Monday 15/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions. ISO TSRA through 15Z extending along a line from KGCN-KFLG. SCT-WDSPRD TSRA/SHRA after 19Z with MVFR conditions in stronger storms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds 30-40 kts, otherwise W-SW winds 10-20 kts. OUTLOOK...Monday 15/12Z through Wednesday 17/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions. SCT-WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower possible, mainly between 19Z-03Z each day. Gusty and erratic outflow winds in vicinity of storms. Otherwise, west winds 10-20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Monsoon moisture will continue to increase with widespread afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, most numerous near the Grand Canyon and along and south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Isolated activity further north. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow winds at 35-45 mph, expect southerly winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon. Slightly cooler daytime temperatures. Tuesday through Thursday...Monsoonal moisture will remain across the region with scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity each day. West to northwest winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon with gradually warming temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff