041
FXUS65 KFGZ 200528
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1028 PM MST Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through next week. Temperatures will remain a bit above average
through the weekend, with light winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Most convection has come to an end this evening as
outflows clear the area and surface heating diminishes. Convection
was limited most of the day by a cap around 250mb and some warming
from about 450-200mb, mainly due to the strength of the high cell
that is nearly directly overhead.

This high will wobble around for much of the forecast period, a bit
back westward, then back east, but not much movement overall. The
amplitude will vary slightly, the days where hghts decrease a bit
will release a bit more CAPE, but nothing really stands out.

One thing that continues to hold true is that this is not a very
favorable position. Although we will not dry out, moisture will
largely be provided by daily rainfall/outflows, not by advection
from the Gulf of California. This is not ideal, but also not game
ended. Steering flow will slow continue to favor areas along, south
and southwest of the Mogollon Rim, really well into next week, until
the high re-positions farther east, if it ever does.

One thing to watch will be heat, we have been flirting with EHW
criteria all week, it may be prudent to issue for the Grand Canyon
zones over the weekend, will let the next shift look at that.

That`s about it, trends are on track, no updates are needed.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 20/06Z through Sunday 21/06Z...Outside of
convective activity, VFR conditions and generally light winds.
Saturday 18Z-03Z Sunday, expect SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA
that may produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 21/06Z through Tuesday 23/06Z...Outside of any
convective activity, expect VFR conditions and generally light
winds. From 18Z-03Z each day, SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA may
produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, with above normal temperatures. Storms may
produce heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. Outside of any storm
activity, expect variable winds 5 to 15 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, with above normal temperatures. Storms may
produce heavy rain and gusty outflow winds. Outside of any storm
activity, expect variable winds 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

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