![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
428 FXUS65 KFGZ 161644 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 944 AM MST Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average with typical afternoon winds. && .UPDATE...No immediate changes for the forecast for today: expecting another day with isolated coverage in showers and storms. Based on satellite trends, the Kaibab Plateau should be the starting location of storms today based on CU quickly forming there. Likewise looks like that trend is about to start down in the White Mountains as well. New hires models show more isolated coverage for Yavapai county today while storms start up over the rim and dive down into Gila county this afternoon. Overall will see what instability and outflow boundary interaction can do for us today. && .PREV DISCUSSION /442 AM MST/...Today...High pressure begins to retrograde westward some as it continues to wobble around the southwest. With flow continuing to keep monsoonal moisture moving into the region, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. 00Z HREF guidance has the greatest PWATs situated mainly south of the Mogollon Rim, where 0.90-1.10 inches are forecast. To the north, moisture looks to be a little less, with PWATs around 0.70-0.90 inches. SBCAPE also looks to maximized south of the Rim into eastern Yavapai County, so the greatest coverage of storms this afternoon will likely be concentrated over these areas. Elsewhere, more isolated coverage is expected mainly over the higher terrain. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be the primary threats with these storms, however some stronger storms may produce hail as well. Wednesday...Moisture looks to increase slightly over a broader area, so a slight increase in coverage looks probable for Wednesday. All and all, it looks to be another repeat of a fairly typical monsoon day. Instability looks to be a bit less however, but still concentrated mainly near and south of the I-40 corridor. Thursday through Monday...High pressure seems to continue to wobble around the southwest, gradually meandering it`s way westward through the remainder of the forecast period. Ensemble guidance seems to not deviate much from day to day on moisture across northern Arizona, so daily chances for showers and thunderstorms look to continue through the period. Outside of the precipitation chances, temperatures look to remain fairly typical for this time of year. With afternoon highs generally near-normal to about +5F above normal. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 16/12Z through Wednesday 17/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions. ISO-SCT TSRA/SHRA between 19Z-03Z with brief MVFR possible. Gusty and erratic outflow winds between 30-40 kts in vicinity of storms. Localized FU/HZ possible due to wildfires, especially near KGCN. Outside of storms, expect west winds 5-15 kts. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 17/12Z through Friday 19/12Z...ISO-SCT TSRA/SHRA each day between 19Z-03Z. Gusty and erratic outflow winds between 30-40 kts in vicinity of storms. Outside of storms, expect west winds 10-20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Gusty, erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. West to northwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon with near-normal temperatures. Thursday through Saturday...Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue into the weekend. Outside of storms, expect winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon with near-normal temperatures. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR/Humphreys AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff