275
FXUS65 KFGZ 201543
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
843 AM MST Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through next week. Temperatures will remain a bit above average
through the weekend, with light winds.

&&

.UPDATE...The forecast for today is a virtual repeat of Friday. A
few morning clouds will burn off as the morning progresses with
another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing.
Storms will be most numerous along and east of a line extending
from Prescott to Page where deeper moisture resides with activity
remaining isolated and weak to the west of this line. Main
threats today are lightning and localized flooding due to brief
heavy downpours. It looks like we may get a surge of additional
moisture overnight with better chances for heavy rain on Sunday,
especially from the Mogollon Rim southward.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /440 AM MST/...Strong ridging continues over the
western US, with the center slowly drifting westward through
Monday. This places our region under a northerly flow regime
aloft, not the typical monsoon orientation but enough moisture
will remain in place for scattered thunderstorms each day.
Moisture levels are highest along/south of the Mogollon Rim and
this is where the better coverage of storms will be each day.
Sunday afternoon and evening could be interesting south of the rim
as northerly steering flow increases and higher CAPE values are
also forecast. A few strong to severe storms and localized
flooding is looking more likely Sunday evening in Yavapai/Gila
counties. Outside of storms, it will stay hot through Monday
though likely a bit short of warning criteria. Tuesday through
Thursday - much of the guidance now forecasts the ridge to
strengthen again and move back eastward toward Arizona. Although
scattered storms are still forecast each day (especially
along/south of the Mogollon Rim), the intensity of storms could be
suppressed by the warmer mid level air in the ridge. We will also
have to monitor the lower elevation areas for possible heat
products if the ridge ends up as strong as some of the guidance
shows.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 20/12Z through Sunday 21/12Z...Outside of
convective activity, VFR conditions and generally light winds.
Saturday 18Z-03Z Sunday, expect SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA
that may produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 21/12Z through Tuesday 23/12Z...Outside of any
convective activity, expect VFR conditions and generally light
winds. From 18Z-03Z each day, SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA may
produce brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Look for daily afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms with greatest chances for activity between
11 AM MST - 7 PM MST. Above normal temperatures will persist through
the weekend too. Expect generally light winds (5-15 mph), outside of
gusty/erratic outflows.

Monday through Wednesday...Chances for showers/thunderstorms each
afternoon/evening will continue through next week, along with above
normal temperatures. Primary hazards expected to be gusty/erratic
winds, heavy rain, and hail. Outside of storm driven winds, look for
generally west through north winds 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/JJ
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff