432
FXUS65 KFGZ 091118
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
418 AM MST Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated storms/showers will continue across the High
Country today, becoming more limited to the White Mountains
Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances look to once again
increase across the higher elevation locations this weekend and
into next week. Outside of showers/storms, hot temperatures will
continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Heat and isolated storms will continue to be the
main topics today, as high pressure remains center over Arizona.
An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for areas below 4000` at the
Grand Canyon, across Yavapai County, and northern Gila County.
With the soaring daytime highs, be sure to avoid strenuous
activity during the hottest part of the day (~11 AM - 7 PM), and
drink plenty of water. Similar to yesterday, some locations may
see relief from the heat due to showers/storms forming this
afternoon. Although widespread wetting rain in not expected, we
can`t rule out an isolated storm or two producing brief heavy
rain. Dry lightning will also be a concern, due to the continued
dry conditions.

Thursday and Friday...A weak trough will slide across the Great
Basin Region, weakening the previously mentioned ridge. As this
ridge flattens over the Southwest, moisture will become limited to
the White Mountains, but daytime highs will continue to stay on
the hot side.

Over the Weekend & into Next Week...High pressure will once again
build across the Southwest, keeping daytime highs hot and
potentially allowing moisture to return across the High Country.
The synoptic pattern suggested on model guidance is not a
favorable monsoon pattern, but it still looks to allow moisture to
push in from the south. Confidence is still low on how next week
will shake out, but we`ll continue to monitor the trends through
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 09/12Z through Thursday 10/12Z...VFR
conditions expected through the TAF period. Slight chances for
-SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW line this afternoon between 18Z-02Z.
 Light and variable winds expected through 18Z, becoming westerly
 at 5-15 kts afterwards. Gusty/erratic winds possible near storms.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 10/12Z through Saturday 12/12Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the period. Slight chances for
showers/thunderstorms along and south of a KSOW-KSJN line Thursday
and Friday afternoon. Look for west-southwest winds 10-20 kts,
gusting near 25 kts on Thursday, becoming lighter on Friday.
Overnight winds should become light and variable.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Hot and mostly dry
conditions expected today and Thursday. Slight chances for
showers/storms across the high terrain each afternoon. Minimum RH
values forecast to range between 10-20% each afternoon with
overnight recoveries 30-60%. Look for westerly winds 10-25 mph,
gusting near 30 mph each afternoon. Gusty winds possible near storms.

Friday through Sunday...Hot and mainly dry conditions forecast for
Friday, but increasing chances for showers/storms returns over the
weekend across the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Minimum RH
values look to be 5-15% north of the Mogollon Rim, and 10-25% along
and south of the Rim each afternoon. Overnight recoveries 30-60%
anticipated. Look for generally west winds 10-20 mph each afternoon,
but gusty/erratic winds possible near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
evening for AZZ018-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff