015
FXUS65 KFGZ 182043
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
143 PM MST Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week. Temperatures will remain above average
through the weekend with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft is centered over the
Arizona/New Mexico border this afternoon keeping us in a moderate,
yet warm, monsoon pattern. This high will gradually retrograde
westward over the coming days with little change expected in the
overall pattern.

For today, we remain on the western periphery of the high pressure
circulation which is keeping us in a very light southerly steering
flow. We will see a combination of light steering flow and outflow
driving storms today, so varying storm motion can be expected. So
far, storms have initiated over and just to the north of the high
terrain features and have been scattered in coverage. Expect these
to gradually make their way into the lower elevations by this
evening. Similar to the previous days this week, the best
instability and moisture are pooled south of the rim so this area
will see the best potential for any stronger storms or heavy rain
later today.

By tomorrow, the high center will be centered over northern
Arizona and we`ll start to see a shift to a more northerly flow
pattern for the next several days. The high will continue to
amplify through the Great Basin leaving us in a northerly flow.
This regime tends to see moisture remain south of the Mogollon
Rim with drier air beginning to filter in to far northern reaches
of Arizona. Daily thunderstorm chances will continue each day,
favoring areas along and south of the rim, with less coverage to
the north. Model consensus seems to favor a slight uptick in
moisture over the weekend which may lead to a bit higher storm
coverage. We have trended our precipitation chances slightly
lower than the NBM guidance which continues to show a high bias.
This overall pattern favoring the rim south for storm activity
will continue through next week.

As far as temperatures are concerned, they will continue to run
above average through the next week. The warmest day looks to be
Saturday and our heat risk starts to near warning criteria. Our
confidence is not high enough to issue any warnings with the
cloud cover/precipitation uncertainty, but we`ll continue to
monitor this potential.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 18/18Z through Friday 19/18Z...VFR conditions
outside of -TSRA/SHRA that is starting to develop across the
region. Coverage will be isolated across the whole area from 18Z
through 06Z Friday. Heavy rain, small hail, and gusty/erratic
outflow winds will be the primary hazards. Outside of thunderstorm
driven winds, look for W winds 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 19/18Z through Sunday 21/18Z...Daily SHRA/TSRA
chances mostly in the afternoon/evening hours persist. Gusty and
erratic winds likely from storm development, with W-NW winds
generally less than 15 kts otherwise. VFR conditions will persist
outside of showers/storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Scattered showers and
storms are expected each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic
outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main
hazards. Daytime winds generally southwest to northwest 5 to 15
mph outside of storms, along with warmer than normal
temperatures.

Sunday through Tuesday...A moderate monsoon pattern will continue
through much of next week with above average temperatures.
Scattered to widespread showers and storms are forecast each
afternoon and evening. Outside of storms, expect daytime winds
west through north about 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff