996
FXUS65 KFGZ 191724
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1024 AM MST Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week. Temperatures will remain above average
through the weekend with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.UPDATE...No morning updates needed today with another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Very similar
to the past several days. Isolated heavy rain and strong wind
gusts with the stronger storm cells. Temperatures will remain
about 5 degrees above average.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...Some light showers continue early
this morning, mainly over northern Apache and Navajo counties,
with clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds elsewhere. The
center of the high pressure system is parked right over central
Arizona, and the clockwise circulation around this center can be
seen in current radar loops (showers in NE Arizona moving south,
while showers in Coconino County are moving north). Latest model
data continues to indicate that the center of the high will slowly
move westward over the next few days, and this will bring
northerly steering flow to most of our forecast area starting
today, but getting a bit stronger later Saturday and Sunday.
Precipitable water values are slightly above normal for mid-July
south of the Mogollon Rim and this isn`t expected to change much
over the next several days. Along and north of the Mogollon Rim,
moisture values are closer to normal. 500mb heights will remain
high today (596 dam) with another hot day around the region, but
just a bit short of any warning criteria for our lower elevations.
These heights slowly come down over the weekend and into next
week as the high shifts westward, allowing for a gradual lowering
of high temperatures - though still a few degrees warmer than
normal. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
develop each day, first over the higher terrain including the
Mogollon Rim/White Mtns by late morning or early afternoon, and
then move southwestward with the mean steering flow. This pattern
is favorable for some strong to locally severe thunderstorms
rolling off the rim into Gila/Yavapai counties by late afternoon
and evening. The main threats with these storms include strong
gusty winds and localized flooding, though some isolated large
hail is also a possibility. This pattern sticks around for much of
next week, though right now Sunday afternoon and evening are
looking particularly favorable due to higher instability (CAPE)
values, and also enhanced northeasterly steering flow of around
20-25 kts. North of the Mogollon Rim, coverage of storms should be
somewhat lower, but still in the 30-50% range. Outside of gusty
winds with storms, generally west to northwest winds 5-15 mph are
expected into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 19/18Z through Saturday 20/18Z...Isolated
TSRA/SHRA will begin developing across the region between 18Z and
21Z. Outflow interactions will help generate additional
convection activity while also resulting in gust erratic winds,
especially when nearby aviation sites. Activity will diminish
after 01-03Z this evening.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 20/18Z through Monday 22/18Z...Daily chances
persist for scattered TSRA/SHRA each afternoon/evening. Periods
of MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds near TSRA. Otherwise,
VFR conditions with variable daytime winds 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, with the most numerous
storms expected over the higher terrain. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds, small hail, and  heavy rainfall remain the main hazards.
Daytime winds southwest to northwest 5 to 15 mph outside of storms,
along with near-normal to slightly above normal temperatures.

Sunday through Tuesday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards.
Variable winds 5 to 15 mph outside of storms, along with near-normal
to slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/JJ
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff