065
FXUS65 KFGZ 162315
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
416 PM MST Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average with
typical afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today`s round of monsoonal storms are just getting
fired up this afternoon. Based on observations and hires guidance
from this mornings runs, coverage will overall remain isolated
but pretty well spread out across all of northern Arizona for the
afternoon and evening. Overall expecting the LCR and lower
elevations in Sw Yavapai county to receive the least/no coverage
of storms for today. The high is centered more so in central NM
today, so flow here well more so be SW to NE today...but steering
flow looks lower today and early satellite trends are pointing to
terrain driven training which could result in isolated flash
flooding.

From Wednesday on into the weekend the high is expected to
gradually shift westward toward Nevada/So. Cal. Despite this
shift, daily storms chances persist and blended guidance
continues to point toward storm coverage increasing across the
region. Obviously the shift in the high would result in steering
flows changing from day to day, eventually becoming more NW to
SE. Temperatures during this time will remain near normal/ only
roughly 5 degrees above normal.

Looking into next week, the daily trend of scattered storms will
persist. Temperatures will start to fall a few degrees with the
expected uptick in coverage of storms that will persist into the
start of next work week. It does look like daily coverage will
start to trend down later next week as the high shifts back east,
based on ensemble guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 17/00Z through Thursday 18/00Z...Expect VFR
outside of convective activity. Through 03Z, SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD
+TSRA that may produce brief MVFR. Otherwise, clearing overnight.
Similar conditions repeat again AFT 19Z Wednesday. Expect light
winds away from convective activity and outflows.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 17/00Z through Saturday 20/00Z...Each day from
about 19Z-03Z, expect SCT SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA that may produce
brief MVFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail, clearing conditions
each night. Sfc winds W-SW5-15kts in the daytime. Winds may be gusty
and erratic when associated with convective activity and/or outflows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Isolated to scattered
showers and storms will develop each afternoon and evening. Gusty,
erratic outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the
main hazards. West to northwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon with
near-normal temperatures.

Friday through Sunday...Daily shower and storm chances continue into
the weekend. Outside of storms, expect winds around 5-15 mph each
afternoon with near-normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff