532
FXUS65 KFGZ 140928
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
228 AM MST Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day through next week as we enter into an active monsoon
pattern. Temperatures will remain near average during this time
with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure over the Four Corners will
drive monsoonal moisture into Arizona. A decaying complex of
thunderstorms over northern Mexico should also help to increase
moisture across central Arizona today. As a result, another round
of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. 00 UTC HREF
guidance shows the greatest instability (around 1000-2000 J/Kg) in
areas south and west of the Mogollon Rim, with lesser CAPE values
(200-700 J/Kg) to the north. PWATs also look to be maximized over
these areas, with around 1.00- 1.20 inches.

The greatest coverage and intensity of storms looks to mainly be
near and south of the Mogollon Rim into Yavapai County, the greatest
coverage is expected over these areas. Elsewhere, more isolated
coverage is expected. Storms should initially fire over the higher
terrain, but as outflows develop, storms should move southwestward
off the terrain into the lower elevations. The main threats with
storms today will be flash flooding and strong, gusty outflow
winds.

Monday...High pressure begins to shift further eastward slightly,
allowing for more moisture to be advected northward. Greater
coverage across northern Arizona looks to ensue as a result.
However, any remnant debris clouds in the morning from earlier
convection could limit/delay convective initiation.

Latest hi-res guidance has the greatest chances for storms on Monday
mainly along and north of the Mogollon Rim, before transitioning
southward into the lower deserts.

Tuesday through Saturday...High pressure continues to wobble in
place through the week. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
will remain as a result, with daily coverage largely dependent upon
the exact position of the high and any influences from remnant
convection.

Temperatures look to remain near to slightly above normal through
the period. Each days afternoon high temperatures look to vary from
day to day as the high shifts, but showers and storms (and their
resulting cloud cover) could easily result in cooler temperatures on
some days.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 14/06Z through Monday 15/06Z...VFR conditions overnight
with a few sprinkles possible mainly north of I-40. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms develop again after 19Z Sunday, first over the higher
terrain and spreading into valleys by mid afternoon. MVFR conditions
briefly in stronger storms. There is a chance that showers or thunderstorms
could last into the late evening hours. Winds in the afternoon and
evening will be highly influenced by outflows, with local gusts
to 35 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 15/06Z through Wednesday 17/06Z...Daily SHRA/TS
opportunities will persist, but VFR conditions are expected outside
of those. Winds will remain variable, especially in the afternoons
and evening when outflows will be spread out across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Monsoon moisture will continue to
increase with widespread afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, most numerous near the Grand Canyon and along and
south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Isolated activity
further north. Outside of gusty/erratic outflow winds at 35-45 mph,
expect southerly winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon. Slightly
cooler daytime temperatures.

Tuesday through Thursday...Monsoonal moisture will remain across the
region with scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
each day. West to northwest winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon
with gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff