861
FXUS65 KFGZ 142345
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
445 PM MST Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day through next week as we enter into an active monsoon
pattern. Temperatures will remain near average during this time
with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft was centered over Colorado and
the Four Corners region during the afternoon, set to remain in
place through Monday. Starting Tuesday the high will begin a
gradual shift westward and amplify under the influence of a
strengthening trough over the eastern United States and a
stationary trough just off the west coast.

For Today...The morning sounding at Flagstaff indicated a bit
more low level moisture and instability. In addition, model
soundings further south are indicating a similar trend with
increased moisture and instability. As a result, expecting more
widespread activity from the Mogollon Rim southward than observed
on Saturday. A few pulse severe thunderstorms will be possible
over Yavapai County with a mixed layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.
Elsewhere, isolated activity. We did lower the chances for
precipitation for late this evening and after midnight to a
generic 10-20% since there is very low confidence in any
particular area receiving showers overnight.

On Monday...The high stays put. Moisture will continue to
increase as flow from over the Gulf of California is open for
business. Daytime vertical mixing will help entrain some of the
Gulf moisture into the high circulation but also diurnal
valley/mountain flow will help push moisture northward. The result
will be another round of scattered showers from the Mogollon Rim
southward with activity tending toward isolated further north.
Would not be surprised to see a couple severe thunderstorms and
localized flooding across portions of Yavapai and Gila Counties.

From Tuesday onward...The high center wobbles westward across
Arizona eventually amplifying over the Great Basin late in the
week. As a result, we will see a continued increase in monsoon
moisture through the week for the reasons mentioned in the first
paragraph. The pattern will also become more favorable for the
development of thunderstorm complexes over northwest Mexico mid to
late in the week for an additional source of moisture from the
south. The result will be a gradually increasing trend in the
coverage of showers and storms heading toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 15/00Z through Tuesday 16/00Z...VFR conditions outside
of storm activity. Scattered TSRA/SHRA moving westward from a KFLG-
KPAN-KSOW line at 00Z toward Yavapai County including KPRC through
the evening hours, with MVFR conditions and hail in the stronger
storms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds 30-40 kts, otherwise W-SW
winds 10- 20 kts. Another round of scattered storms develop after
19Z Monday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/00Z through Thursday 18/00Z...VFR conditions
outside of storm activity. Scattered SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower
possible, mainly between 19Z-03Z each day. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds in vicinity of storms. Otherwise, west winds 10-20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected across northern Arizona, most
numerous from the Mogollon Rim and locations south. Outside of
gusty/erratic outflow winds at 35-45 mph, expect west to northwest
winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon. Little change in daytime
temperatures.

Wednesday through Friday...Monsoonal moisture will remain across the
region with scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
each day. West to northwest winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon
with little change in high and low temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff