990
FXUS65 KFGZ 150926
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
226 AM MST Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues
across the region. Temperatures will remain near to slightly
above average with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains centered across the Four Corners
region early this morning but will start to shift slightly to the
west over the next several days.

For today...With the high across the Four Corners we should continue
to see moisture increasing across the region. Another day of
scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected with the best
activity along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Isolated showers will
remain possible across northern areas through this evening. CAPE
values remain higher south of the Rim (>1000 J/kg) with lower values
(500-1000 J/kg) elsewhere. Would not be surprised to see a few
strong to severe storms develop by this afternoon with strong
outflow winds and even some hail. With plenty of moisture streaming
into the region would expect some of the more robust storms will be
able to drop some pretty heavy rainfall and flash flooding will
remain a concern through today, especially across Gila and Yavapai
counties.

As we head through the rest of the week, we see the high start to
drift to the west, though it may wobble a bit back and forth through
that time. We should be able to keep strong moisture advection
across the state and continued daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. The location of the high will be the main driver for
just how much convection we see and where it initiates each day. The
pattern changes very little giving more confidence in the monsoon
hanging around through next weekend.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the
week with the afternoon high temps varying from day to day. Cloud
cover and convection will play a role here as well and will likely
limit just how hot it gets each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 15/06Z through Tuesday 16/06Z...VFR conditions outside
of storm activity. Scattered SHRA/TSRA ending by 08Z south of I-40
and west of I-17. MVFR conditions, hail, and gusty/erratic winds
to 30- 40 kts in the stronger storms in southwest Yavapai County.
Another round of scattered storms developing after 19Z and decreasing
after 03Z, most numerous along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/06Z through Thursday 18/06Z...VFR conditions
outside of storm activity. Scattered SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower
possible, mainly between 19Z-03Z each day. Gusty and erratic outflow
winds in vicinity of storms. Otherwise, west winds 10-20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Gusty, erratic outflow
winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats.
West/northwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon with near-normal
temperatures.

Wednesday through Friday...Daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue through Friday. Mainly light winds outside of
thunderstorms, along with near-normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff