443
FXUS65 KFGZ 171736
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1036 AM MST Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues
across the region. Temperatures will remain near to slightly
above average with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.UPDATE...Current forecast is in good shape. Copious moisture
still in place south of the Rim, with hirez guidance indicating a
bit more instability (CAPE) today focused just south of the Rim
as has been the case the past couple days. Today should be a bit
more active, with heavy rain, flash floods, and gusty winds as
the primary threats. Those areas where rain has fallen already
(generally just south of the Rim in Gila County, and portions of
Yavapai) will be more vulnerable to flash flooding due to the
saturated soils.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /345 AM MST/...High pressure is centered across
New Mexico early this morning but will start to shift slightly to
the west over the next several days.

For today...The high remains centered over NM early this morning,
though its location will start to slide a bit to the west through
the day. Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
expected with the best activity along and south of the Mogollon Rim
with isolated showers remaining possible across northern areas
through this evening. PWATs remain highest south of the Mogollon Rim
with values around 1.0-1.3" while areas to the north remain drier
and values are generally less than 0.8". CAPE values remain higher
south of the Rim (>1000 J/kg) with lower values (<500 J/kg)
elsewhere. Strong outflow winds and heavy rainfall are the main
hazards, though small hail cannot be ruled out.

As we head through the rest of the week, the high will continue to
drift to the west and settling over NV/CA, though it may wobble a
bit back and forth through that time. This will impact just how
active the monsoon is across our region as the flow will  shift from
more of a southeast/southwest flow to more of northerly flow. Expect
chances to remain isolated to scattered across the state, though
just where it remains the most active will vary from day to day as
the location of the high will be the main driver for just how much
convection we see and where it initiates each day.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the
week with the afternoon high temps varying from day to day. Cloud
cover and convection will play a role and this will will likely
limit just how hot it gets each day. While it certainly starts to
feel like it heats up as we head into the weekend, it looks to be
near to slightly above normal for late July and no heat headlines
are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 17/18Z through Thursday 18/18Z...Another
round of scattered thunderstorms today mainly along and south of a
KGCN - KRQE line, with isolated storms further north. Brief MVFR
conditions in heavy rain and strong outflow winds in and around
storms. Outside of storms, VFR continues with varying wind
directions generally 10-15 kts or less.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 18/18Z through Saturday 20/18Z...Daily chances
for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. MVFR conditions and
gusty, erratic outflow wind possible in and around TS. Otherwise,
VFR with winds generally 10-15 kts or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic
outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main
hazards. Winds generally variable 5 to 15 mph, along with near to
slightly above normal temperatures.

Friday through Sunday...Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will each afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds,
small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. Winds
generally variable 5 to 15 mph, along with near to slightly above
normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK/Humphreys
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff