826
FXUS65 KFGZ 151556
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
856 AM MST Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues
across the region. Temperatures will remain near to slightly
above average with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.UPDATE...No immediate need to make any forecast updates this
morning. The latest hires guidance remains pretty consistent with
the message for today. Most initial activity will start along the
Mogollon Rim late this AM/early this afternoon, with activity
pushing off the rim to the south into parts of Yavapai and Gila
counties. Activity for the Navajo and Hopi Nations will once
again remain more limited: similar to recent days. The overall
severe hail threat looks lower today, but slower slow storm motion
will help provide a flash flooding potential.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /342 AM MST/...High pressure remains centered across
the Four Corners region early this morning but will start to
shift slightly to the west over the next several days.

For today...With the high across the Four Corners we should continue
to see moisture increasing across the region. Another day of
scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected with the best
activity along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Isolated showers will
remain possible across northern areas through this evening. CAPE
values remain higher south of the Rim (>1000 J/kg) with lower values
(500-1000 J/kg) elsewhere. Would not be surprised to see a few
strong to severe storms develop by this afternoon with strong
outflow winds and even some hail. With plenty of moisture streaming
into the region would expect some of the more robust storms will be
able to drop some pretty heavy rainfall and flash flooding will
remain a concern through today, especially across Gila and Yavapai
counties.

As we head through the rest of the week, we see the high start to
drift to the west, though it may wobble a bit back and forth through
that time. We should be able to keep strong moisture advection
across the state and continued daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. The location of the high will be the main driver for
just how much convection we see and where it initiates each day. The
pattern changes very little giving more confidence in the monsoon
hanging around through next weekend.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the
week with the afternoon high temps varying from day to day. Cloud
cover and convection will play a role here as well and will likely
limit just how hot it gets each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 15/12Z through Tuesday 16/12Z...SCT TSRA/SHRA
over the higher terrain, 19Z-03Z. Gusty outflow winds to around 40
kts and periods of MVFR possible around TSRA. Otherwise, VFR with
winds W/NW around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/12Z through Thursday 18/12Z...SCT TSRA/SHRA
each afternoon, with gusty outflow winds and periods of MVFR
conditions possible. VFR conditions with W/NW winds around 10 kts
each day are otherwise expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Gusty, erratic outflow
winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats.
West/northwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon with near-normal
temperatures.

Wednesday through Friday...Daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue through Friday. Mainly light winds outside of
thunderstorms, along with near-normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR/Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff