754
FXUS65 KFGZ 151931
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1231 PM MST Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues
across the region. Temperatures will remain near to slightly
above average with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is situated over the Four Corners at
the moment. This is allowing moisture to funnel into the region
driving daily monsoonal shower/storm chances. A bulk of the
activity remains confined along and south of the Rim today,
though some isolated coverage is expected on the Navajo and Hopi
Nations. With such high PWATs, thunderstorms will be able to
bring heavily rainfall with high amounts in a short period of
time. The good news is, storm motion still remains high enough
that flash flooding will remain an isolated threat with training
being the contributor to a flooding threat. With CAPE running
~1000j/kg, there`s enough instability to also provide a hail
threat...though the past several days have shown that it takes
one heck of a storm to have the energy to produce severe sized
hail as most are producing sub-severe sizes. Any storms today with
such hot temperatures poses a wind threat with outflows.

Tomorrow looks to be a near repeat forecast from today.

As we go into the middle and later part of this week, the high
will be wobbling while shifting west. This westerly shift is worth
watching as historically it can lead to higher severe/flash
flooding threat. Meanwhile, an uptick in rain/cloud coverage is
expected, so temperatures will SLOWLY be trending downward. By
this weekend, temperatures will be trending closer to normal than
they are now. Even some of the lower elevations in Yavapai county
look like they could be slipping out of the triple figures.

Looking ahead beyond the next week, monsoonal precipitation
chances look to continue persisting. Ensemble guidance eventually
brings the high back east to the Four Corners during the middle
of the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 15/18Z through Tuesday 16/18Z...SCT TSRA/SHRA
over the higher terrain, 19Z-03Z. Gusty outflow winds to around 40
kts and periods of MVFR possible in and around TSRA. Otherwise,
VFR with winds W/NW around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 16/18Z through Thursday 18/18Z...SCT TSRA/SHRA
each afternoon, with gusty outflow winds and periods of MVFR
conditions possible. VFR conditions with W/NW winds around 10 kts
each day are otherwise expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Gusty, erratic
outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the primary
threat with storms. West/northwest winds 5-15 mph late each morning
and afternoon before becoming outflow dominated. Near-normal
temperatures.

Thursday through Saturday...Daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms persist. Mainly light winds outside of thunderstorms,
along with near-normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

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