970
FXUS65 KFGZ 160320
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
820 PM MST Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues
across the region. Temperatures will remain near to slightly
above average with typical afternoon winds.

&&

.UPDATE...Mostly light showers remain across southern Coconino
County along with a few isolated thunderstorms in southern
Yavapai County this evening. Showers/thunderstorms will continue
to decline through the evening hours, but a few stray
thunderstorms are not out of the question. Even with activity
diminishing, outflow boundaries are still causing gusty winds
across our CWA and will likely continue through the rest of the
evening. The previous forecast remains largely on track, so only
minor updates were made this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /415 PM MST/...High pressure is situated over the Four Corners at
the moment. This is allowing moisture to funnel into the region
driving daily monsoonal shower/storm chances. A bulk of the
activity remains confined along and south of the Rim today,
though some isolated coverage is expected on the Navajo and Hopi
Nations. With such high PWATs, thunderstorms will be able to
bring heavily rainfall with high amounts in a short period of
time. The good news is, storm motion still remains high enough
that flash flooding will remain an isolated threat with training
being the contributor to a flooding threat. With CAPE running
~1000j/kg, there`s enough instability to also provide a hail
threat...though the past several days have shown that it takes
one heck of a storm to have the energy to produce severe sized
hail as most are producing sub-severe sizes. Any storms today with
such hot temperatures poses a wind threat with outflows.

Tomorrow looks to be a near repeat forecast from today.

As we go into the middle and later part of this week, the high
will be wobbling while shifting west. This westerly shift is worth
watching as historically it can lead to higher severe/flash
flooding threat. Meanwhile, an uptick in rain/cloud coverage is
expected, so temperatures will SLOWLY be trending downward. By
this weekend, temperatures will be trending closer to normal than
they are now. Even some of the lower elevations in Yavapai county
look like they could be slipping out of the triple figures.

Looking ahead beyond the next week, monsoonal precipitation
chances look to continue persisting. Ensemble guidance eventually
brings the high back east to the Four Corners during the middle
of the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 16/00Z through Wednesday 17/00Z...VFR
conditions expected to persist outside of brief MVFR conditions in
heavier SHRA/TSRA. Isolated to scattered coverage for
showers/storms through at least 03Z. Gusty outflow winds near
40kts possible through the TAF period. Otherwise, light and
variable winds overnight becoming westerly 10-20 kts after 18Z.
More SHRA/TSRA expected by 18Z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 17/00Z through Friday 19/00Z...Daily chances
for SHRA/TSRA, especially between 18Z-03Z. Brief MVFR conditions
possible in heavier storms, with VFR conditions expected
elsewhere. Outside of gusty outflow winds, look for mostly west
winds 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Gusty, erratic
outflow winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the primary
threat with storms. West/northwest winds 5-15 mph late each morning
and afternoon before becoming outflow dominated. Near-normal
temperatures.

Thursday through Saturday...Daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms persist. Mainly light winds outside of thunderstorms,
along with near-normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/RKR
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...RKR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff