499
FXUS65 KFGZ 160855
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
155 AM MST Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day through the next week as an active monsoon pattern continues.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average with
typical afternoon winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure begins to retrograde westward
some as it continues to wobble around the southwest. With flow
continuing to keep monsoonal moisture moving into the region,
another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon.

00Z HREF guidance has the greatest PWATs situated mainly south of
the Mogollon Rim, where 0.90-1.10 inches are forecast. To the north,
moisture looks to be a little less, with PWATs around 0.70-0.90
inches. SBCAPE also looks to maximized south of the Rim into eastern
Yavapai County, so the greatest coverage of storms this afternoon
will likely be concentrated over these areas. Elsewhere, more
isolated coverage is expected mainly over the higher terrain.

Gusty winds and heavy rain will be the primary threats with these
storms, however some stronger storms may produce hail as well.

Wednesday...Moisture looks to increase slightly over a broader area,
so a slight increase in coverage looks probable for Wednesday. All
and all, it looks to be another repeat of a fairly typical monsoon
day. Instability looks to be a bit less however, but still
concentrated mainly near and south of the I-40 corridor.

Thursday through Monday...High pressure seems to continue to wobble
around the southwest, gradually meandering it`s way westward through
the remainder of the forecast period. Ensemble guidance seems to not
deviate much from day to day on moisture across northern Arizona, so
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms look to continue through
the period.

Outside of the precipitation chances, temperatures look to remain
fairly typical for this time of year. With afternoon highs generally
near-normal to about +5F above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 16/06Z through Wednesday 17/06Z...VFR
conditions expected through at least 18Z when more SHRA/TSRA are
forecast to begin. Brief MVFR ceilings/visibilities will be
possible in stronger storms between ~18Z-03Z. FU/HZ is expected to
persist near the KGCN terminal due to a nearby wildfire. Outside
of gusty/erratic outflow winds, look for generally west winds
5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 17/06Z through Friday 19/06Z...Daily chances
for SHRA/TSRA will continue through the outlook period, with best
chances between 18Z-06Z. Gusty/erratic outflow winds likely each
afternoon evening, with generally west winds 10-20 kts otherwise.
Localized FU/HZ possible due to wildfires, especially near KGCN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Gusty, erratic outflow
winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall remain the main hazards. West
to northwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon with near-normal
temperatures.

Thursday through Saturday...Daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue into the weekend. Outside of storms, expect
winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon with near-normal temperatures.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff