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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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857 FXUS63 KFGF 121048 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 548 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures are expected this week with the next precipitation chances arriving Wednesday/Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Seeing a few different layers of clouds moving across the FA early this morning, even some patchy fog across southeast North Dakota. Went ahead and added the mention of fog through the next few hours as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...Synopsis... 500mb ridging slowly builds into the Northern Plains over the next few days, keeping the weather quiet. As the ridge pushes eastward by mid-week, the next batch of shortwaves will begin to affect the FA Wednesday into Thursday. Thereafter, it appears ridging will return, with no strong signal for precipitation for the rest of the forecast period. ...This week... The NBM and other ensembles are showing a pretty consistent signal for at least normal temperatures during this 7 day forecast period. If anything, as the 500mb ridging takes place today into Tuesday, temperatures should be slightly above normal. With the Wednesday/Thursday precipitation chances, more clouds and any rain could keep temperatures from getting above normal. SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather Wednesday across far western Benson County. Do expect good moisture return, with good 850mb southerly flow during the day Wednesday, allowing precipitable water values to climb above 1.5 inches across most of the FA. Questions remain on the degree of instability, with models showing quite a bit of remnant cloud cover from nocturnal convection drifting through this FA. This results in the best instability Wednesday developing over the western Dakotas, closer to the main 700mb wave/surface low. At this point, not seeing much of a low level jet forming Wednesday night, so not seeing much of a reason for any stronger activity that may develop over western North Dakota remaining strong as it moves east into this FA. However, will continue to monitor new data over the next few days. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 There is some patchy fog around the FA early this morning, so will have to see if any of it briefly moves into any of the TAF sites. If it did, it would not last too long. Otherwise, winds will remain light with only FEW-SCT cloud cover. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Godon