198
FXUS63 KFGF 241721
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for strong to severe storms returns to the area at the
  end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

There is some wildfire smoke causing hazy conditions and minor
air quality impacts, but coverage and visibility impacts aren`t
enough to add to the forecast for now. Outside of the light
haze, skies are sunny, winds are light and temperatures are
mild.

UPDATE
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Mostly sunny skies continue with only a few pockets of higher
clouds moving through the region. Drier airmass remains in
place in the low levels with seasonal highs expected (mid to
upper 70s). Surface flow is starting to shift and south-
southwest winds 10-20 mph may develop this afternoon across
parts of the west. Overall, looking at low impacts and pleasant
weather through the near term periods.

UPDATE
Issued at 726 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Area of thicker high clouds are spreading northeast from
northwest SD thru Bismarck area to Grand Forks and far NW MN.
Sky grids had some of this forecast but will update coverage.
Ground fog was very brief and only at isolated areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...Synopsis...

High pressure will be over Fargo at 12z this morning. Skies are
clear. Will watch for some patchy ground fog formation as winds
are calm and temps/dew pts are within 2 degrees. Winds will be
turn south 5-15 kts thru the day and temps will be a bit warmer
with highs into the 70s. Late afternoon and evening a surface
trough moving east from Saskatchewan early this morning will be
located in eastern and southeast Manitoba late this afternoon.
Sfc CAPE of 700-900 j/kg will be near this front and sufficient
mid level shear for a few t-storms in eastern Manitoba east of
Lake Winnipeg into parts of NW Ontario. The far south and
southwest extension of this trough may generate isold
shower/t-storms into areas along the ND/MB border late this
aftn/eve.

In addition though will watch deeper moisture from western
Mexico north into Kansas and then into Iowa and southern MN and
Wisconsin around the 500 mb ridge over Virginia. Most of this
deeper moisture stays to our south with higher rainfall amounts
aiming for southeast SD into southern half of MN. How much
moisture for rainfall gets into our area is more uncertain, with
higher pops in the far south/southeast Wednesday into Thursday
with WPC QPF in the 0.20 to 0.40 inch range south of Park
Rapids-Fargo- Lisbon line. Few hundredths farther north for Wed-
Thu.

...Friday and Saturday Severe Chances...

As this system moves out, south winds 5-15 kts will develop and
temps will warm from the 70s back into the 80s. How much low
level moisture returning northward is in question with GFS most
aggressive with dew pts into the mid 60s Friday and low-mid 70s
Saturday. This is considerably more aggressive than ECMWF/GEM
which keeps the 70+ dew pts more in southern half of MN and
eastern SD. Sfc CAPES over 2000 are likely to develop Friday
aftn into central ND and then farther east into the RRV and MN
Saturday aftn. Ensembles indicate 0-6km bulk shear and Sfc
CAPES over 2000 with a 70 pct probability of occurrence from GFS
in central ND 00z Fri and then over the southern RRV Saturday.
So there is instability present. There is a weak surface trough
and upper level disturbance moving from the Pacific into
southern Saskatchewan Thursday late and into western Manitoba
Friday with a surface trough in central ND and then farther east
into eastern Manitoba and NW Ontario Saturday with sfc trough
from north central MN into southeast SD. Net result appears to
be enough mid level shear, 500 mb jet of 50 kts along the
border, and sufficient instability for scattered severe t-storms
Friday late aftn/eve and then Saturday aftn. Potential exists
for t-storm complex forming Friday evening and moving ESE Friday
night thru the area aided by 35 kt 850 mb jet. This may play
havoc with any new t-storm development Saturday. The 850 mb jet
and warm advection is much less than the prev well known severe
outbreak.

Machine learning tools indicate potential for severe storms
Fri-Sat period as well, Focus for our area seems more tied to
Friday late and Friday night vs Saturday a bit more our south
and southeast forecast area and thru southern MN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN with drier boundary layer flow in
place. There are limited impacts from some smoke in the region
(vis around 6sm), but the trend should be towards clearing.
There is a low chance for radiational fog to develop in north
central MN, with KBJI and KTVF monitored for any impacts if they
do develop early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, light winds
shift to the south-southwest and start to increase above 10kt
Wednesday morning as low pressure builds west of the region.
Rain chances increase in southeast ND by midday, but
coverage/probabilities are too low for inclusion at KFAR during
this TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/DJR
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...DJR