396
FXUS63 KFGF 121500
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures are expected this week with the next
  precipitation chances arriving Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Patchy fog has burned off and only a few mid clouds remain.
Otherwise very quiet under the surface high with light winds
and temperatures in the 60s. Should get into the upper 70s to
low 80s today.

UPDATE
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Seeing a few different layers of clouds moving across the FA
early this morning, even some patchy fog across southeast North
Dakota. Went ahead and added the mention of fog through the next
few hours as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...Synopsis...
500mb ridging slowly builds into the Northern Plains over the
next few days, keeping the weather quiet. As the ridge pushes
eastward by mid-week, the next batch of shortwaves will begin to
affect the FA Wednesday into Thursday. Thereafter, it appears
ridging will return, with no strong signal for precipitation
for the rest of the forecast period.

...This week...
The NBM and other ensembles are showing a pretty consistent
signal for at least normal temperatures during this 7 day
forecast period. If anything, as the 500mb ridging takes place
today into Tuesday, temperatures should be slightly above
normal. With the Wednesday/Thursday precipitation chances, more
clouds and any rain could keep temperatures from getting above
normal.

SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather
Wednesday across far western Benson County. Do expect good
moisture return, with good 850mb southerly flow during the day
Wednesday, allowing precipitable water values to climb above 1.5
inches across most of the FA. Questions remain on the degree of
instability, with models showing quite a bit of remnant cloud
cover from nocturnal convection drifting through this FA. This
results in the best instability Wednesday developing over the
western Dakotas, closer to the main 700mb wave/surface low. At
this point, not seeing much of a low level jet forming Wednesday
night, so not seeing much of a reason for any stronger activity
that may develop over western North Dakota remaining strong as
it moves east into this FA. However, will continue to monitor
new data over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

There is some patchy fog around the FA early this morning, so
will have to see if any of it briefly moves into any of the TAF
sites. If it did, it would not last too long. Otherwise, winds
will remain light with only FEW-SCT cloud cover.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/JR
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon