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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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871 FXUS63 KFGF 121729 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1229 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures are expected this week with the next precipitation chances arriving Wednesday/Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Some cumulus developing across the Devils Lake basin and between Lake of the Woods and the Upper Red Lakes, with light winds and temperatures in the 70s. Little changes needed to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Patchy fog has burned off and only a few mid clouds remain. Otherwise very quiet under the surface high with light winds and temperatures in the 60s. Should get into the upper 70s to low 80s today. UPDATE Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Seeing a few different layers of clouds moving across the FA early this morning, even some patchy fog across southeast North Dakota. Went ahead and added the mention of fog through the next few hours as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...Synopsis... 500mb ridging slowly builds into the Northern Plains over the next few days, keeping the weather quiet. As the ridge pushes eastward by mid-week, the next batch of shortwaves will begin to affect the FA Wednesday into Thursday. Thereafter, it appears ridging will return, with no strong signal for precipitation for the rest of the forecast period. ...This week... The NBM and other ensembles are showing a pretty consistent signal for at least normal temperatures during this 7 day forecast period. If anything, as the 500mb ridging takes place today into Tuesday, temperatures should be slightly above normal. With the Wednesday/Thursday precipitation chances, more clouds and any rain could keep temperatures from getting above normal. SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather Wednesday across far western Benson County. Do expect good moisture return, with good 850mb southerly flow during the day Wednesday, allowing precipitable water values to climb above 1.5 inches across most of the FA. Questions remain on the degree of instability, with models showing quite a bit of remnant cloud cover from nocturnal convection drifting through this FA. This results in the best instability Wednesday developing over the western Dakotas, closer to the main 700mb wave/surface low. At this point, not seeing much of a low level jet forming Wednesday night, so not seeing much of a reason for any stronger activity that may develop over western North Dakota remaining strong as it moves east into this FA. However, will continue to monitor new data over the next few days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions now and throughout the period. Some cumulus forming that could get broken in a few spots near KDVL and KBJI, but should stay 3500 ft or above. Cumulus will dissipate after sunset. Light and variable winds today will pick up out of the southeast at around 8 to 10 kts by the end of the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon/JR DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...JR