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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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289 FXUS63 KFGF 171137 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 637 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wildfire smoke may impact sensitive groups within northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Patchy fog is still developing along the valley, parts of Devils Lake Basin, and across West Central Minnesota. With the sun rising, the fog should be dissipated by 15z. Visibilities are currently dropping between 1/2 SM and 3 SM across the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...Synopsis... Areas of smoke, haze, fog cover the area. Pockets of dense fog are forming in central ND in area of clear sky and light winds. For today, expect likely some residual smoke/haze but just how thick it is is highly uncertain as RAP/HRRR surface smoke numbers fall below 10 ug/m3 today. Extensive collaboration was done with BIS/ABR to come up with a unified approach and net result was to stick to 7-10 ug/m3 concentrations for our smoke grids and then blend as needed to avoid small patches of smoke which wouldn`t make sense. Overall with lower concentrations once you get past 15z there is little to no smoke in the grids today and beyond. Did keep the 20 pop for shra/tsra in NW MN this aftn per prev fcst. MUCAPE does reach around 1000 j/kg in the area and convective temps in mid 70s, which will be reached. CAMs are not producing much in the way of precip but certainly think that keeping a chance is warranted based on CAPE values and any potential short wave or weak convergence on backside of upper low and east side of upper ridge/sfc high building in. Dry tonight into Sunday. A little warmer Sunday with mostly low 80s. Theme of having highs in the low-mid 80s continue next week as 500 mb ridge builds into the northern high plains and spreads east. 500 mb flow becomes more zonal mid to late week as 500 mb high shifts back from 4 corners region into the mid Mississippi valley. Couple short waves will move along the US/Canadian border, one Tuesday/Tuesday night which has been well advertised. This one is associated with MUCAPE potential values in the 1500-2000 j/kg range. In fact Tues-Thu afternoons will see high CAPE values with probability of sfc CAPEs above 2000 j/kg in the 50 pct range in central ND. Thus Tues-Fri period has chances for thunder in the fcst (except for Thu). This may help set the stage for additional strong to perhaps severe convection, although confidence in strength of storms is quite low given uncertainties into the degree of unstable air mass as well as details revolving around potential forcing and moisture. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 A mixed bag of MVFR and IFR as a mixture of fog and smoke reduce visibilities this morning. By 15z the fog should dissipate to increase visibilities. By 20z the smoke should have mixed out to bring no visibility reductions. Winds are going to be from the North through the TAF period bouncing between 340 and 010. By 02z winds are expected to drop to VRB 05kts until 12z tomorrow. Theres is a slight chance of some afternoon showers for KBJI starting around 20z and ending by 02z. Uncertain the temperatures and forcing will be there to create afternoon convection with the high pressure setting in. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MM DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...MM