152
FXUS63 KFGF 131050
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
550 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 60 to 80 percent chance for thunderstorms Wednesday
  into Wednesday night, with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5)
  for severe storms across the far western FA and a marginal
  risk for locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Patchy ground fog has been showing up in the Bemidji area, where
the winds are lightest and skies the clearest. Otherwise there
are some patches of clouds along the Valley and westward with
southeast winds around 5 mph. No changes are needed to the
forecast at this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...Synopsis...
The FA will be between surface high pressure over the Great
Lakes and developing low pressure over the western High Plains
today. Return flow will strengthen from the light flow that has
been in place, with the best moisture return into the western
and central Dakotas. The best 700mb forcing and 850mb warm
advection will also occur to the west as well. These parameters
shift eastward into this FA Wednesday into Wednesday night. The
700/500mb wave continues to linger over the Northern Plains
Thursday into Thursday night (more so for the eastern FA), with
ridging developing again by the weekend into early next week.

...Wednesday into Wednesday night...
Overall not impressed with the severe weather potential for this
period. Models continue to show pretty thick cloud cover moving
into the FA late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, possibly
associated with remnant nocturnal convection further west. This
would hold down heating and the available instability in this
FA. The moisture return is good though, with surface dewpoints
expected to rise into the mid to upper 60s (mainly Red River
Valley and west) and precipitable water values rising above
1.50 inches. The upper jet looks pretty weak with 0-6km shear
values also minimal. For those reasons, slow storm movement
would result in localized heavy rain amounts. There are
indications now that a closed 700mb low could track across
northeast South Dakota into central Minnesota Wednesday night,
with a decent 850mb jet focused on its eastern side. This would
help to sustain storms and the good moisture feed into the area,
it is just a matter of where exactly this may be (this FA or
further south).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

There has been some patchy ground fog around KBJI, but it
doesn`t appear widespread or very thick. Otherwise southeast
winds will increase today, but they will mainly stay 5 to 15
mph. Left any mention of precipitation out of this set of TAFs,
as the chances for anything (and only at KDVL) is very low.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon