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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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629 FXUS63 KFGF 140907 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 407 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today and last into Thursday. Heavy rain and lightning are the main impacts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...Synopsis... 500 mb low moving slowly east/northeast thru west central/central Saskatchewan with one area of concentrated t-storms in that area. In our region though a second weaker upper low is over partrs of Oregon/Idaha with a broad 500 mb ridge into Minnesota. This puts our area in southwest flow aloft and within this flow there are numerous short waves seen on water vapor this early morning. How these short waves move and bring development of showers/t-storms is the main forecast challenge. PWATS are near 2 inches in a zone over central SD/ND and this ribbon of deeper moisture slides slowly east today but basically remains in the Devils Lake-Jamestown-Bismarck region thru this evening. Thunderstorm/heavy rainfall situation today remains typically uncertain. HREF and various CAM guidance highlight what is the most likely scenario which is t-storms from NW SD or SE MT moving northeast and developing within this deeper moisture area toward Devils Lake during the course of the day. Latest HRRR backs off on timing and focuses it more into DVL region midday vs WPC/HREF had higher precipitation 12z-18z today. At this point and time, either scenario is just as likely. Not much development in central ND at 08z but as short wave from NW SD/NE MT moves northeast rapid development of t-storms may occur and bring the heavier rainfall this morning or wave is slower to move and slower to develop t-storms and main rain is midday or afternoon into Devils Lake area. Either way...idea is for the concentrated area of showers and t-storms in central ND into Devils Lake area to advance east in time into the Red River valley late today/this evening and into NW MN tonight...though with lower intensity rainfall. With high PWATS localized rain amounts 2-3+ inches are possible in the zone thru central ND into Devils Lake basin. Uncertainity is high enough though and also past 7 day NDAWN precipitation for the area shows little to no precipitation for most of the Devils Lake area. Thus feel going with a watch before storms form is not quite the way to go due to prior conditions have been mainly dry weather. Thursday will see 500 mb trough to our west slide over eastern Dakotas/Minnesota with Global Canadian and ECMWF developing a closed low aloft vs GFS is more progressive. 00z ECMWF remains more consistent from run to run and at this time favored in developing area of rain around the upper low into parts of E ND/RRV and much of northwest MN Thursday on backside of the upper low. Not a heavy rainfall but a general rain area. If more progressive GFS is right then rain area Thursday is less and ends as system moves east. Weekend into early next week shows an upper level ridge building into south central Canada and northern Plains. 00z operational GFS is a complete outlier compared to the 00z GFS ensemble and discounted at this time. It has an upper low in NW Ontario into Manitoba vs a ridge. Net weather result with a ridge would be temps more into the low 80s. Some risk of a shower/t-storm early and mid next week due to short waves moving. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Showers will impact GFK, FAR, and DVL within the TAF period, with showers eventually impacting TVF and BJI towards the end of the TAF period to after the TAF period. Lightning probabilities are low, so for now will be keeping -SHRA and -RA, but lightning may arise at FAR. Winds will increase in magnitude but will remain primarily from the southeast for a majority of the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Perroux