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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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217 FXUS63 KFGF 120901 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 401 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat related impacts are expected into this weekend, especially Saturday afternoon. Impacts will be highest for heat sensitive or vulnerable groups and anyone without effective cooling or hydration. - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms tonight for eastern North Dakota into far northwest Minnesota. - There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 401 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...Synopsis... Tricky forecast ahead over the next few days trying to time convective chances and temps/dewpoints and heat. Upper ridging has been in place across the west into the central US with westerly to northwesterly flow pattern aloft. A series of shortwave troughs to top the ridge and move through the region today through the weekend. The initial wave to move through the area today which may kick off an isolated storm this afternoon in an area of theta-e advection into northeastern ND/far NW MN, however warm air aloft likely to keep the area capped which is expected to limit storm potential through the afternoon/early evening. ...Heat And Humidity Builds... Heat to build across the area today into Saturday with thermal ridging aloft, and increasing H85 temperatures into the 20s Celsius. Additionally increasing low level moisture to send dewpoints into the 70s across much of the area later today into Saturday. With highs into the upper 80s and 90s, and the higher dewpoints, heat index values will top out in the 90s to lower 100s across the area. The warmest period is expected Saturday afternoon. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected into Sunday. ...Friday Severe Threat... A secondary stronger wave to push east tonight through ND and to fire storms further west across western ND closer to a developing surface low this evening. That activity is expected to progress eastward into eastern ND/far western MN late this evening into the overnight hours for the main severe weather threat. Deep layer shear around 25-30 kts with 2-3k J/Kg of instability should allow any activity moving into the area/developing across the area to sustain itself through the night. Given elevated nature, and likely storm growth into an overnight MCS as it develops eastward into the area late tonight, expect any tornado potential to be near zero with hail and gusty winds the main severe threats. ...Saturday Severe Threat... Some lingering activity possible across the north/east into Saturday and some questions as to how that will impact severe chances later in the day, especially with advancement of the upper level wave and placement of the associated sfc low and sfc troughing. The morning activity may persist into mid-day which could push the afternoon development further south of the area. The sfc trough to be in place across west central MN by mid-day into mid afternoon where initiation could be expected through the afternoon hours. Therefore tried to keep pops more broadbrushed through the day and increasing across the east/south into the afternoon/evening hours with the uncertainty timing/placement of how things will play out. With the sfc low in place/boundary and potential for surface-based convection, possibilities for an isolated tornado exist, however wind/large hail threat continue to remain more likely. Some locally heavy rain potential as well with freezing levels increasing to around 14kft and PWATs into the 1.7 inch range. Overall storm motion expected to be progressive enough though to limit any flood potential at this time. ...Sunday and Beyond... Another threat for severe storms across the area Sunday with the stronger trough dropping through the region. This troughing will bring cooler conditions to the area for early next week, with high pressure building in to the area Tuesday. Highs to return to the 70s across the area by Tuesday into Wednesday, with warmer temperatures returning to the forecast by the end of the forecast period Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Conditions remaining ideal through the night with VFR skies and light southerly winds. Good low level moisture should support cumulus formation by the afternoon leading to FEW at MVFR levels. Poor winds aloft will not support strong gusts tomorrow but still monitoring for evening convection moving out of southern Manitoba impacting northern areas potentially by the end of the TAF period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJB AVIATION...Spender