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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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320 FXUS63 KFGF 151100 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 600 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally heavy rainfall will continue into the early morning hours within the northern Red River Valley && .UPDATE... Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 The steadiest rain continues to fall over the central and northern Red River Valley, and it appears it is now filling back in over the northern Devils Lake region. Therefore have increased precipitation chances in these areas to about 100 percent. 24 hour rainfall totals in some areas are approaching 2 to 3 inches. Still seeing some fog in the western Devils Lake region as well, but it remains patchy with up and down visibilities. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...Synopsis... There is quite an extensive ongoing area of rain across the Northern Plains at the time of this discussion. In this FA specifically, can see a nice spin in the precipitation from the Mayville radar, seemingly centered just east of the Fargo Moorhead area. Per the SPC mesoanalysis page this is where a nearly stacked low pressure system is. This system has really slowed down from what had been seen the past few days, with this low now expected to slowly spin right over the FA all day. It should finally begin to push eastward tonight into early Friday. This system should still be followed by 500mb ridging for the weekend into early next week. How this ridging may break down in the mid to late week period is still quite uncertain. ...Locally heavy rainfall early this morning... As the above mentioned low has set up over the central Red River Valley early this morning, there is also an inverted trough north of the low extending up into northeast North Dakota. Precipitable water values are still around 1.80 inches within this corridor of strong 850mb moisture transport. Since midnight, have seen the steady rain across southeast North Dakota end, with the comma-shaped current band taking shape over the central and northern Valley. Big drops of rain falling quickly have led to precipitation amounts exceeding 2.00 inches within a narrow corridor around Grand Forks. This has fallen in waves, and Grand Forks has been dry, which has slowed the runoff from this rain. Interesting as well, there has been no lightning with this rainfall. These echoes continue to progress northward, and will move into the northern Valley between now and sunrise. Therefore it is likely the northern Valley will also see some amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range, although again these will be fairly localized. From sunrise through noon, the highest probabilities (70-90%) for rain will remain north of the highway 2 corridor, and possibly even transition westward back into the Devils Lake region. Then the rest of the area should see these higher probabilities for the afternoon. The best moisture feed will start to get cut off though, so outside of any thunderstorms, rainfall rates will be lower than now. It does look to stay cloudy all day today, so not sure how much instability will develop again. At this point, areas along the North and South Dakota border may see a few breaks, and that may be the only area that could see some rumbles of thunder this afternoon. As mentioned in the previous discussion, with the spin in the atmosphere, funnels may be possible this afternoon. This will be less likely without some heating (clearing), so will just have to keep an eye on that through the day. Fog is also something to monitor, but need some clearing for this too. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Tricky set of TAFs as the low pressure system will basically sit right over the FA today and spin. The highest precipitation chances will be along and north of highway 2 this morning, then they will increase about everywhere this afternoon. Have kept TAFs simple for now, trying to narrow down what is going on within the first 6 hours. It is going to be rainy and cloudy, with variable wind directions throughout. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Godon