804
FXUS63 KFGF 280011
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
711 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms after 7 PM
  late this afternoon through the overnight for eastern North
  Dakota into west-central Minnesota.

- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday
  afternoon in west-central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 701 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Supercells have developed in central ND between Minot and
Bismarck. These will tend to move eastward pushing closer to
western Devils Lake basin. Should supercells remain discrete to
semi-discrete, very large hail greater than 2 inches will be
possible. Cannot rule out a tornado as well. A Tornado Watch is
in effect for portions of the Devils Lake basin through 1 AM.

There is an area of inhibition over the Red River Valley, which
should trend convection toward the southeast while it becomes
linear. Convection is still expected to turn linear at least by
10 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...Synopsis...

Early afternoon water vapor imagery reveals shortwave trough in
eastern MT working its way east-northeast into SK/MB. This will
provide mid/upper forcing and sufficient shear over an area of
increasing instability and low level moisture over central and
western ND. This will set the stage for very likely robust
thunderstorm development within central ND, of which will likely
be supercells. This activity will work its way eastward mid to
late afternoon before merging into a strong to severe linear
complex of storms tonight deeper into portions of
eastern/southeastern North Dakota into west-central MN by
morning.

As overnight/early morning thunderstorms exit the area to the
southeast, a lull in activity is expected before additional
thunderstorms become possible, favored to be closer to central
MN. Some of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe as well
in the late afternoon hours.

Cold front moves through the area late Saturday into early
Sunday. Behind this front, upper pattern turns more
northwesterly aloft favoring drier, less unstable air mass into
the region. This would favor near average temperatures, less
chance for organized severe weather, as well as near average
precipitation.


...Severe Potential This Afternoon into Tonight...

Supercells are likely to form in central ND this afternoon. As
these supercells move generally east, they could eek into
portions of Devils Lake basin, such as Benson County. Should
this occur, very large hail greater than 2 inches may occur.

Vast majority of guidance still favors upscale growth as it
enters deeper into Devils Lake basin and Sheyenne River Valley
after 7 PM. This would favor main threat for severe hazards to
be gusty winds up to 70 mph. Following the instability gradient,
linear complex is expected to move southeast or east tonight as
it moves through southeast ND into west-central MN by early
morning Saturday.

...Severe Potential Saturday...

General expectation is morning thunderstorms will shunt at least
a portion of the most unstable air mass into central MN. This
would favor corridor of most likely severe potential to be
within central MN. However, if most unstable air mass works its
way either back northward or morning thunderstorms doesn`t quite
shunt instability too deep into central MN, then west-central
MN would hold the greatest potential, at least initially. Should
the latter scenario occur, all hazards including large hail,
gusty wind, and tornadoes would be possible at least for a
relatively brief window between the 5-8 PM timeframe.

Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop elsewhere in the
afternoon, which would hold potential for hail up to the size
of ping pong balls.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 701 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Between 01Z and 12Z, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
move from eastern ND into west-central MN. Either -TSRA or VCTS
have been included in TAFs, with respective time period denoting
when storms are most likely near that location. Some
thunderstorms may bring erratic, gusty wind in excess of 35kt in
addition to lightning. This is particularly true for sites like
KDVL and KFAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/DJR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ