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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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897 FXUS63 KFGF 171743 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1243 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wildfire smoke may impact sensitive groups within northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Fog is lifting in many areas this morning, but still in place in others. Lowest visibilities have improved to 2 SM. Once the sun gets higher in the sky, the more widespread lifting should occur. Forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Patchy fog is still developing along the valley, parts of Devils Lake Basin, and across West Central Minnesota. With the sun rising, the fog should be dissipated by 15z. Visibilities are currently dropping between 1/2 SM and 3 SM across the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...Synopsis... Areas of smoke, haze, fog cover the area. Pockets of dense fog are forming in central ND in area of clear sky and light winds. For today, expect likely some residual smoke/haze but just how thick it is is highly uncertain as RAP/HRRR surface smoke numbers fall below 10 ug/m3 today. Extensive collaboration was done with BIS/ABR to come up with a unified approach and net result was to stick to 7-10 ug/m3 concentrations for our smoke grids and then blend as needed to avoid small patches of smoke which wouldn`t make sense. Overall with lower concentrations once you get past 15z there is little to no smoke in the grids today and beyond. Did keep the 20 pop for shra/tsra in NW MN this aftn per prev fcst. MUCAPE does reach around 1000 j/kg in the area and convective temps in mid 70s, which will be reached. CAMs are not producing much in the way of precip but certainly think that keeping a chance is warranted based on CAPE values and any potential short wave or weak convergence on backside of upper low and east side of upper ridge/sfc high building in. Dry tonight into Sunday. A little warmer Sunday with mostly low 80s. Theme of having highs in the low-mid 80s continue next week as 500 mb ridge builds into the northern high plains and spreads east. 500 mb flow becomes more zonal mid to late week as 500 mb high shifts back from 4 corners region into the mid Mississippi valley. Couple short waves will move along the US/Canadian border, one Tuesday/Tuesday night which has been well advertised. This one is associated with MUCAPE potential values in the 1500-2000 j/kg range. In fact Tues-Thu afternoons will see high CAPE values with probability of sfc CAPEs above 2000 j/kg in the 50 pct range in central ND. Thus Tues-Fri period has chances for thunder in the fcst (except for Thu). This may help set the stage for additional strong to perhaps severe convection, although confidence in strength of storms is quite low given uncertainties into the degree of unstable air mass as well as details revolving around potential forcing and moisture. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 As fog clears out, FU will remain a presence in the sky. Some clouds could pop up into the afternoon as the surface heats, but VFR conditions are expected. Winds will calm tonight to light and variable, and skies should clear out as well. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...AH/MM DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...AH