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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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709 FXUS63 KFGF 152356 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 656 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues this afternoon with minor impacts to harvest operations and overall dreary fall like weather. && .UPDATE... Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Main wrap around rain continues over the Devils Lake basin, with some showers and even some stronger cells seen on satellite trying to get going over the MN side where there is some weak instability. While the RBG curve has good ice potential in the top of the clouds, no lightning so far and cells have struggled to maintain strength. Won`t completely rule out some thunder yet but at this point chances of anything on the stronger side look minimal. Made a few minor tweaks to POPs for current trends, and will continue to watch as the upper low spins over our area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...Synopsis... The stacked low over the valley will continue to meander south through tonight with showers main along the western and northern periphery of the low. Mean NW flow aloft will carry the low off to the south overnight with large scale ridging building across the four corners region through the weekend bringing drier weather and near normal temperatures. Variability in the location of the ridge will then dictate precip chances into next week with enough variability between guidance to say chances for rain but location and timing is unknown. ...Today... Clearing along the south and eastern side of the low is allowing diurnally driven showers to pop in SE North Dakota and west central Minnesota this afternoon. This activity will wane with southward movement of the low but not before another quarter to half inch of rain over the next 24 hours in eastern North Dakota with closer to 0.10 east of the valley. While there is minimal risk of flooding with any of the rain due to dry antecedent conditions the moisture may be unwelcome for some especially farmers in the beginning stages of the harvest season and fields will likely be muddy now for a few days before drying. After this low moves out ridging building out of the four corners region quickly begins to spread into the region though thermal ridging remains slightly west of us more along the MT/ND border keeping us near average for high temperatures through the weekend in the mid 70s to low 80s. next chance for rain looks to be early next week with shortwave activity working around the upper ridge into the northern plains. with not real agreement from ensembles about the likely location there does seem to be a general consensus that this rain (should it hit our area) would be on the light end of the spectrum with 72 probs for rain in 0.10 to 0.20 inch range. Some of this would likely be tied ridge as it shifts ever so slightly east bringing building instability but wont venture to speculate on any future severe threat or associates impacts from this activity. Overall a dreary end to the week with better weather in store for the weekend, guess we just couldn`t get away with a full week of perfect summer weather after the earlier 70s and 80s this week before the rain came. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A mix of VFR to IFR with rain and showers continuing over the forecast area. Some thunder chances at least for the MN airports in the next few hours, but just have VCSH or -RA for the rest of the period as we lose what little instability we have after 04Z or so. Rain will be in and out of the airports and bring vis up and down into the 3-6SM range at times. Showers will linger for much of the night but will become more widely scattered by tomorrow morning. Ceilings will drop to IFR, at this point will keep out any fog but will watch for some to form near the center of the low overnight. Some improvement by the end of the period is expected. Winds will shift to a more northwesterly direction if they already haven`t and pick up with some gusts on the ND side tomorrow afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...JR