709
FXUS63 KFGF 152356
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
656 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues this afternoon with minor impacts to harvest
  operations and overall dreary fall like weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Main wrap around rain continues over the Devils Lake basin,
with some showers and even some stronger cells seen on satellite
trying to get going over the MN side where there is some weak
instability. While the RBG curve has good ice potential in the
top of the clouds, no lightning so far and cells have struggled
to maintain strength. Won`t completely rule out some thunder yet
but at this point chances of anything on the stronger side look
minimal. Made a few minor tweaks to POPs for current trends,
and will continue to watch as the upper low spins over our area.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

...Synopsis...

The stacked low over the valley will continue to meander south
through tonight with showers main along the western and northern
periphery of the low. Mean NW flow aloft will carry the low off to
the south overnight with large scale ridging building across the
four corners region through the weekend bringing drier weather and
near normal temperatures. Variability in the location of the ridge
will then dictate precip chances into next week with enough
variability between guidance to say chances for rain but location and
timing is unknown.

...Today...
Clearing along the south and eastern side of the low is
allowing diurnally driven showers to pop in SE North Dakota and west
central Minnesota this afternoon. This activity will wane with
southward movement of the low but not before another quarter to half
inch of rain over the next 24 hours in eastern North Dakota with
closer to 0.10 east of the valley. While there is minimal risk of
flooding with any of the rain due to dry antecedent conditions the
moisture may be unwelcome for some especially farmers in the
beginning stages of the harvest season and fields will likely be
muddy now for a few days before drying.

After this low moves out ridging building out of the four corners
region quickly begins to spread into the region though thermal
ridging remains slightly west of us more along the MT/ND border
keeping us near average for high temperatures through the weekend in
the mid 70s to low 80s. next chance for rain looks to be early next
week with shortwave activity working around the upper ridge into the
northern plains. with not real agreement from ensembles about the
likely location there does seem to be a general consensus that this
rain (should it hit our area) would be on the light end of the
spectrum with 72 probs for rain in 0.10 to 0.20 inch range. Some of
this would likely be tied ridge as it shifts ever so slightly east
bringing building instability but wont venture to speculate on any
future severe threat or associates impacts from this activity.
Overall a dreary end to the week with better weather in store for
the weekend, guess we just couldn`t get away with a full week of
perfect summer weather after the earlier 70s and 80s this week
before the rain came.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

A mix of VFR to IFR with rain and showers continuing over the
forecast area. Some thunder chances at least for the MN airports
in the next few hours, but just have VCSH or -RA for the rest of
the period as we lose what little instability we have after 04Z
or so. Rain will be in and out of the airports and bring vis up
and down into the 3-6SM range at times. Showers will linger for
much of the night but will become more widely scattered by
tomorrow morning. Ceilings will drop to IFR, at this point will
keep out any fog but will watch for some to form near the center
of the low overnight. Some improvement by the end of the period
is expected. Winds will shift to a more northwesterly direction
if they already haven`t and pick up with some gusts on the ND
side tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR