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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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145 FXUS63 KFGF 161820 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 120 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Will need to monitor smoke/air quality for any issues late today or this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Slightly adjusted PoPs and Sky grids to account for recent trends in radar and sfc observations of reported light rain/drizzle (or lack thereof). Lessened cloud cover somewhat for northeast ND and northwest MN as mentioned in previous Update Discussion. Broadened the coverage of smoke as it enters into the region this afternoon into tonight based on latest guidance. Some guidance introduces the chance for weak thunderstorms this afternoon given the cool temperatures aloft and lessening cloud coverage leading to some diurnal heating toward convective temps, although leaving out for now to wait to see how much heating occurs and whether or not HCR bands mature into consolidated into one or two convergent bands to help initiate/focus convection. UPDATE Issued at 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 No changes to the forecast were made this update, with previous discussion points still valid. Starting to see some indications of sunshine making its way through scattering clouds in northeast North Dakota, in a horizontal convective roll-type fashion. This lends some confidence toward at least northeast ND into northwest MN seeing this occur by afternoon as moisture lessens and HCR processes still develop. This in turn lends confidence toward these locations getting well into the 70s for daytime highs. There also has been conversation between FGF and MN Pollution Control on potential adjustments to the Air Quality Alert that goes into affect this afternoon for near-surface smoke impacting air quality within the Red River Valley, with main topic about potential extension given latest smoke guidance lingering smoke into tomorrow amid the surface high pressure that nestles itself into our region. UPDATE Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Low ceilings have been persistent throughout the night. With these low ceilings sporadic mist/drizzle has been falling on/off at random times and creating lower visibility reports as well. The models show this light rain/drizzle ending this afternoon and into the evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...Synopsis... Sfc low is over Bemidji at 08z with 500 mb low just to its southwest. Concentrated area of light rain showers moving south into SE ND and will be into parts of WC MN to start the day along with areas of drizzle. NE ND/NW MN seeing less in the way of precipitation to start today. High pressure moves in Sunday then a slight warm up occurs next week as 500 mb ridge develops with center over the 4-corners. Short wave moving on top of ridge will bring t-storm chances Tuesday. ...Today... Lingering light rain showers over much of the area as upper low only slowly moves east. Higher pops to start the day into far SE ND into WC MN (Fargo-Wahpeton-Fergus Falls) as this area will see the most concentrated showers thru 13z. But upstream radars do show a few showers yet over western parts of NW Ontario that will likely move south-southwest thru the area today. Far NW fcst area likely to remain dry....west of Langdon-Devils Lake. Just went shower mention and no thunder for now. Not impossible some weak thunderstorms could form if some cloud breaks will occur. High temps today in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Light rain showers may linger into this evening with some model consensus in showing lingering showers from Roseau to Detroit Lakes this evening so did keep a low pop in that area. Looking at wildfire smoke issues...RAP/HRRR, Firesmoke.ca all highlight the higher concentrations of near surface level smoke into north central and northwest ND into Montana today with lighter concentrations into NE ND. MN Pollution Control Agency issued a air quality alert for the Red River valley of MN for late today and Saturday, and honestly looking upstream and such not seeing that degree of smoke push to bring in heavy surface level smoke. Coord with BIS and used smoke tool and concentrations of 15 mg/m3 or higher, which pretty much keeps any smoke west of us. Will let dayshift coordinate any smoke issues and see how things stand upstream once daylight hits. ...Weekend... With slow upper low movement Saturday will not quite be as sunny as prev fcst as likely considerable 850 mb moisture will remain for CU development. Could even be a stray shower. Sunday will see sunnier conditions as upper low moves farther east and upper level ridging begins to move in. ...Next Week... 500 mb trough in eastern Canada and northeast US from the slow moving upper low affecting us will allow a 500 mb ridge to build into northern high plains of Montana, southern Saskatchewan Sunday-Monday and it will build east thru the week. Not as warm as could be with this ridge, but think low-mid 80s for highs will be common. One short wave will move on top of the ridge and give a good chance of t-storms Tuesday/Tuesday night. GFS prog MUCAPE of 2500 j/kg 00z Wed supports t-storm potential but 0-6 km bulk shear is 20 kts so on the borderline for any severe potential. Machine learning info suggests no significant severe weather threat, with some chances showing up in the high plains into eastern MT or SW ND where temps will be warmer. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Ceiling Impacts: Lingering aviation impacts from lowered CIGs into MVFR and IFR categories will continue through at least 21Z for KFAR and KBJI. Overall, low CIGs behind an exiting low pressure system will start to scattered out as cloud layer moisture retreats with the system. There will still be scattered cumulus and shallow cumulus congestus before 01Z for areas that do lose CIGs. There is uncertainty in whether or not CIGs return across the region after 06Z tonight into Saturday morning, although guidance indicates relatively better chance (60%) for this to occur within MN, namely at KBJI. For this reason, decided to maintain MVFR/IFR CIGs at KBJI throughout the TAF period. Potential Smoke Impacts: Smoke will spread into eastern North Dakota into the Red River Valley out of Canada this afternoon into tonight, potentially impacting KDVL, KFAR, and KGFK. Confidence in vsby reductions being low enough to present impacts (ie less than 3SM) remains low, but does remain as a potential outcome after 00Z. For now, kept vsby reductions at 6SM for now with the anticipation of updating/amending as needed. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ/MM DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...CJ