802
FXUS63 KFGF 080843
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
343 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening will produce the main
  hazards of lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Additional
  scattered afternoon thunderstorm activity into Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Heat builds in for Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper
  80s and 90s along with humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...Synopsis...

Today the main upper level trough is moving over the Great
lakes with another low migrating into the lower portions of
Minnesota. Today`s temperatures are in the high 70`s to low
80`s with mostly clear to partially cloudy skies. This will
allow for optimal heating to reach convective temperature and
allow some isolated garden variety thunderstorms to pop up in
the late afternoon and early evening with showers to persist
into the overnight period. Bulk shear is still 20-30knots for
today and Tuesday. Model soundings are not depicting an
environment for anything severe to pop up.

Tuesday, the remnants of Beryl travels through the Central plains
redirecting most of our coastal moisture before another weak
shortwave passes through the northern plains later that evening and
into Wednesday. Most of our moisture content will probably consist
of whatever amount evapotransportation gives us from our farm fields.
The valley could experience some gusty winds as the pressure
gradient gets squeezed as the ridge moves into our region and the
shortwave moves south into the Great lakes.

Thursday through this weekend. The robust ridge makes its way over
to the Northern Plains. The NWS heat risk has the CWA in a moderate
on THursday and a Major for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures are
forecasted to be in the 80`s and potentially 90`s in some areas by
this weekend. Wear sunscreen, drink water, and eat light snacks to
help subdue any impacts if you`re outside for any part of the day.
Multiple shortwaves are depicted to migrate through the region at
this time but overall impacts are uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites.
There is a low chance for patchy fog heading into Monday
morning, with little confidence in exact location. Any fog
formation would likely be shallow and transient. Heading into
Monday morning, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
by around mid morning, which could persist into the early
afternoon. Ceilings are not likely to be impacted; however,
visibility could briefly be reduced by isolated shower activity.
Winds are expected to gradually become more northwesterly
through the day on Monday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...Lynch