089
FXUS63 KFGF 080009
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
709 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening will produce the main
  hazards of lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Additional
  scattered afternoon thunderstorm activity into Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Heat builds in for Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper
  80s and 90s along with humidity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to impact portions
of the area; however, activity is rather limited at this time.
Storm motion is very slow, however, meaning that very localized
heavy rain remains possible where storms form this evening.
Temperatures are in the 70s in most areas, with upper 60s for
the eastern portions of Otter Tail County.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...Synopsis...

Broad trough over the north central CONUS with one main vort
over central MN, and another over northeastern SD. Several more
weak shortwaves/vorts expected to come down as flow starts to
transition to more northwesterly early in the work week. Upper
ridging currently over the west coast begins to shift eastward
later in the week, with some pretty strong 500mb heights moving
into the Plains by Saturday. Some ridge riding shortwaves will
also be possible during this period but predictability is low.

Scattered thunderstorms tonight and again Monday/Tuesday...With
just enough daytime heating for some low level instability and
the upper system spinning over the region, conditions have been
favorable for funnel clouds with non-supercell tornado parameter
around 6 to 8 in southeastern ND. There was a funnel cloud
report just before 18Z north of Fargo, and with continued shower
and thunderstorm development and plenty of surface vorticity, it
will be possible to see some more. Have an SPS out through 00Z
highlighting the possibility of brief, low impact funnels or
brief tornadoes. Threat should dissipate as soon as we lose
heating.

The main vorts will transition off to the east tonight into
tomorrow, leaving flow over our area northwesterly. However,
there will still be some weak disturbances coming down out of
Canada and with cooler air aloft enough heating during the day
to get scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms going
again. CAMs and larger scale models are in pretty good agreement
on having at least some chances of precipitation tomorrow
afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. Like today and yesterday,
there will be some decent CAPE values available around
1000-1500 J/kg but shear continues to look weak, under 20 kts.
Lightning and brief heavy rainfall will again be the main
threats.

Heat Late Week...Upper ridge builds strongly into the area, with
southerly winds picking up. Probabilities of over 90 degrees are
over 40 percent in portions of the Red River valley for Friday
and into next weekend. R and M climate percentiles are also
showing a signal for high heights and warmth, although just 90th
percentiles and not maxed out. NWS HeatRisk map has portions of
our area in the major category for Saturday, so will have to
watch the later part of the week closely for impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Look for VFR conditions through much of the TAF period, with a
continuation of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
this evening. Brief reductions to visibility are possible during
heavier showers. The upper low bringing these conditions to the
region continues to move very slowly eastward, which will allow
very similar conditions heading into Monday. Look for mainly
isolated showers and storms from the late morning through mid
afternoon hours Monday, with winds remaining somewhat light, but
eventually becoming northwesterly at 5-10 knots during the
afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch