209
FXUS63 KFGF 170811
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
311 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-
- Isolated thunderstorms possible each afternoon Friday through
  Monday. Severe weather is not anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...Synopsis...

High pressure will be over the area by late today. North wind 10
mph this morning will diminish to near calm by this evening as
high moves overhead. Sunshine will dominate today, though do
expect some afternoon scattered CU as sufficient 850 mb moisture
remains around 5500 ft agl to which the atmosphere will mix out
to. Convective temps 71-74F across the area. No showers are
anticipated as lots of dry air above the CU layer and no upper
level waves will be moving through.

High pressure moves tonight with near calm winds. Then slowly
east on Thursday with winds turning southerly 5-10 mph. Temps
warming as well with highs mid 70s-low 80s. These are right on
normal for this time of year.

Starting Friday and continuing into early next week will be a
daily 20 pct chance of a shower or t-storm, mainly in the peak
heating of the aftn/early evening. 500 mb ridge builds due north
with hottest airmass thru Alberta into parts of the Northwest
Terrorities and northwest Saskatchewan. 500 mb flow mostly due
south on east crest of the ridge thru Manitoba into eastern
ND/MN. Some weak short waves will move through at times, and
when interacting with modest instability of around 1500 j/kg in
the afternoons/early evening a few showers or storms likely the
result. Sufficient instability for a few storms, but 0-6 km
bulk shear prog to be less than 20 kts so no organized
supercell activity for severe wx.   Highs in the 80s.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

No impacts expected for the TAFs for the next 24 hours. There
may be some patchy fog, but will not mention at any of the TAF
sites due to very low confidence. Other than that, left the
mention of afternoon VFR cumulus.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon