107
FXUS63 KFGF 171455
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
955 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible each afternoon Friday through
  Monday. Severe weather is not anticipated.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Some lower level Cumulus development has begun early this
morning however still not expecting any rainfall for today. With
light winds and the high pressure above us, will be monitoring
for possible fog development in the early morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Skies mainly clear over the area at 12z. Lows overnight were in
the mid 40s to mid 50s. Forecast looks good today, sunshine
leading to scattered CU development. North winds near 10 kts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...Synopsis...

High pressure will be over the area by late today. North wind 10
mph this morning will diminish to near calm by this evening as
high moves overhead. Sunshine will dominate today, though do
expect some afternoon scattered CU as sufficient 850 mb moisture
remains around 5500 ft agl to which the atmosphere will mix out
to. Convective temps 71-74F across the area. No showers are
anticipated as lots of dry air above the CU layer and no upper
level waves will be moving through.

High pressure moves tonight with near calm winds. Then slowly
east on Thursday with winds turning southerly 5-10 mph. Temps
warming as well with highs mid 70s-low 80s. These are right on
normal for this time of year.

Starting Friday and continuing into early next week will be a
daily 20 pct chance of a shower or t-storm, mainly in the peak
heating of the aftn/early evening. 500 mb ridge builds due north
with hottest airmass thru Alberta into parts of the Northwest
Terrorities and northwest Saskatchewan. 500 mb flow mostly due
south on east crest of the ridge thru Manitoba into eastern
ND/MN. Some weak short waves will move through at times, and
when interacting with modest instability of around 1500 j/kg in
the afternoons/early evening a few showers or storms likely the
result. Sufficient instability for a few storms, but 0-6 km
bulk shear prog to be less than 20 kts so no organized
supercell activity for severe wx.   Highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 659 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR thru the pd. Scattered CU will form this afternoon with
bases 3500-4000 ft agl. Brief BKN coverage is possible. Winds
north near 10 kts today, then near calm tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle