243
FXUS63 KFGF 141740
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Temperatures are warming up pretty nicely around the area,
already in the upper 70s to low 80s. Continuing to monitor
clouds from the NW and a budding cumulus field as the ground
heats up. Forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Satellite is pretty clear currently, some clouds in Saskatchewan
moving SE this morning. Main task is monitoring the potential
for severe weather into tonight. Looks mainly to be a southern
valley threat. Forecast remains on track.


UPDATE
Issued at 652 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Pleasant morning with light north wind and some cirrus may SE ND
into west central MN from dissipating t-storms in SE SD. 06z
data suggest very little going on thru 00z with light southeast
wind and highs near 90 creating instability of 2000 j/kg or
higher west central and southwest ND. Expect any storms to form
in this area mid aftn and whether they make it into our western
fcst area 00z or so is questionable. Will continue the low pops.
Things look good for higher pops overnight but severe chances
look pretty iffy it would appear as instability never really
returns except far southwest fcst area this evening/night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...Synopsis...

The large scale pattern will undergo a change in the next 24-48
hours as we transition to a northwest flow aloft following the
passage of a short wave tonight. A widespread shower and
thunderstorm area will accompany this short wave tonight, with
some potential for severe storms for a time late afternoon in
central or western ND and into eastern ND overnight. Mainly a
wind threat. The shift in flow will bring much cooler (mild)
temperatures back to the region, while overall precipitation
chances diminishing as drier/more stable air moves in place.
There could still be some fast moving waves in that type of
pattern but consensus shows very low potential for wetting
precipitation after Monday.

...Severe Risk tonight...

Starting off today dry and stable with weak high pressure in
western Manitoba. MUCAPE is pretty much nil til very late today
as south winds bring up increased low level moisture into
central and western ND. MUCAPE values reach the 1000-1500 j/kg
range primarily Devils Lake area to Fargo and west central MN
and higher farther southwest by 00z Mon...then diminishes
overnight. So while moisture will increase and 0-6km bulk shear
increases to 50 kts ahead of 500 mb short wave uncertainty
exists if enough instability to severe storms in most of our
area from this system this evening/tonight. SPC focuses higher
probs for wind/hail to our southwest near Watford City-Bismark-
Aberdeen-Watertown corridor.

Cold front looks to move east fast enough so that Monday 12z
onward may see remaining showers or a few t-storms, the severe
risk is gone.

...Rest of the week...

More pleasant conditions rest of the week. A low chance for a
few shower or a t-storm Tuesday as a secondary 500 mb short
moves south thru the area. Then high pressure controls Wed-Sat.
Highs in the 70s Tue-Thu then climbing back into the 80s Fri-Sun
with slowly increasing dew points.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Main concerns this TAF period are TSRA, and wind shifts. TSRA
will be likely in the 0z - 12z period, and more likely in the
southern TAF sites. Winds will go light and variable this
evening, turning to the south at first then northerly with a
cold front Monday afternoon. Winds will stay below 15 knots
throughout the entire period. Clouds will build with the
precipitation, but should stay in VFR or MVFR categories.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...AH