865
FXUS63 KFGF 150847
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
347 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Threat ends in far SE ND/WC MN by 12z Mon.

- This week drier and more stable with temps near or below
  normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...Synopsis...

Well defined 500 mb short wave moving into the RRV at 0830z with
an area of showers and t-storms. Highest instability and DCAPE
gradient has remained over our southwest fcst area. Thru 11z
storms, some locally severe, will occur in far SE ND and into
far west central MN near the ND/SD/MN border area. This is where
the focus of elevated instability is located. Northern part of
the rain area has been weakening gradually and for locations
north of Fargo impacts are minimal.

500 mb short wave associated more with the cold front is in SW
Manitoba with a cluster of storms with it. This wave will pass
thru and east of the area by 18z Mon and look for northwest
winds 10-20 kts spreading eastward behind these systems midday
and afternoon.

Next short wave upstream will drop more south thru Manitoba into
eastern ND Tuesday behind the departing short wave and in
advance of a 500 mb low that will be dropping south-southeast
from N Manitoba into NW Ontario. Will have some 20-30 pops for a
few showers or isold thunder with this wave on Tuesday.

High pressure will then move overhead Wed-Thu. 500 mb heights
will rise into western Canada mid week with warmer air spreading
north and a sharp ridge west and trough east will be located
over Canada and the northern tier of the US with our forecast
area in between and on the backside of the 500 mb trough to our
east Fri-Sun period. Warmer air will move in but warmest airmass
remains to our west. Generally dry weather but some weak
shortwaves dropping south may bring low chances for a shower or
t-storm Friday late and again by Monday.

No impacts weather wise anticipated once we have this current
system move out.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Storms are approaching the Devils Lake Basin this evening and
will continue to spread eastward overnight. TSRA and erratic
winds will be likely when storms arrive within the next several
hours for DVL. They shift into the Red River Valley affecting
TVF, GFK, and FAR around 08-11z, followed by BJI around 10-11z.
They exit northwestern Minnesota after 13-15z. Ceilings reach
MVFR to IFR underneath storms and after storms pass for several
hours before skies turn FEW to SCT for coverage. Winds turn
toward the north tomorrow afternoon, with isolated gusts up to
20kts possible for DVL, FAR, GFK, and TVF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Spender