Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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617 FXUS63 KFGF 070045 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 745 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight with up to 50 mph winds and 1" hail. - Late week heat concerns as highs push into the upper 80s to low 90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 745 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Thunderstorm activity is diminishing this evening, with only a few isolated showers and storms remaining in west central Minnesota. Stronger storms could be capable of producing small hail and funnels, but support for this type of activity is on a downward trend. Look for this trend to continue through late this evening, with another chance for mainly scattered showers overnight. Overall, the forecast remains on track this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...Synopsis... Subtropical ridging centered over Florida will steer TS Beryl north into the lower Mississippi valley enhancing a belt of mid level wind though the Ohio Valley and stagnating the overall pattern across the CONUS this week. Further west building ridging slowly shifts east from the Pacific coast inland into the rockies. With this dual high pressure a split jet across the CONUS with one stretching from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the northeast and another jet across the northern Canadian prairies, the northern plains will lie in very weak to negligible flow aloft through the coming week. This will lead to high confidence in the synoptic pattern and a persistence type forecast through at least mid week. - Today/Tonight Showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern North Dakota this afternoon spreading into Minnesota. Primary forcing is DCVA ahead of the upper low centered over north central South Dakota. A band of convection forming along a boundary extending from SE ND to Southern MN may eventually work into our west central MN counties where eff shear of ~25 kts should promote stronger cells capable of near severe thresholds. Elsewhere expecting things to remain sub-severe. Activity will generally track east/Northeast with the low and an end time of around midnight for most activity as the loss of afternoon heating takes full effect. Moving through Sunday and into early next week more shower chances as various pieces of energy move through bringing enough forcing to give afternoon showers and 10-30% pops similar to the past few days. Confidence in each day with regards to evolution and timing is inherently low due to the weak nature of forcing and subtle influence of any mesoscale factors such as cloud cover or surface boundaries. - Late Week Heat Continuing past Wednesday the western ridging finally progress far enough east to build low level thermal ridging over us and push sfc temps into the 80s. Building southerly 850mb flow Thursday into next weekend on the eastern periphery of this thermal ridge will promote increased mixing. This is reflected by the low spread in NBM maxT through the week with <7 degree spread between the 10th and 90th percentile any given day between now and Friday at a given point. Area highs climbing from the 70s and 80s today to upper 80s and even a few low 90s for some by the end of the week. HeatRisk (found at wpc.ncep.noa.gov/heatrisk) is already showing a broad chunk of the area under a moderate risk of health related impacts for Friday and Saturday due to these warm temps. Will continue to monitor the need for heat related headlines come later this week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across portions of the area, with KBJI and KDVL seeing the greatest chance for activity over the next several hours. Ceilings are expected maintain VFR thresholds through the period; however, occasional reductions to visibility are possible during shower activity. Winds will be generally light through the TAF period. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Sunday afternoon as an upper low continues to slowly move through the area. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...Lynch