200
FXUS63 KFGF 161503
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1003 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No significant weather impacts anticipated the next 7 days.

- Isolated to scattered shower/t-storm today, and again Friday
  to Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Isolated to scattered showers continue to push into northern
Minnesota and North Dakota from Canada this morning. This is on
the backside of an upper level low situated over the Hudson.
Chances for showers continue through the afternoon hours.
Instability is on the weaker end (500-1000 J/kg), but isolated
lightning and thunder can`t be ruled. No Severe Weather is
expected today.

UPDATE
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

500 mb short wave moving southeast thru western ND and ahead of
it showers and a few t-storms eastern Montana into far northwest
and north central SD. A few light showers/sprinkles trying to
make it into Valley City/Lisbon, but that is as far as they will
get as area slips into South Dakota this morning.

Upstream 500 mb short and area of showers Winnipeg area and east
into NW Ontario moving south-southeast and will be thru parts
of NW MN (mainly Hallock-Bemidji and east) this morning and
likely a bit more coverage this aftn due to daytime heating.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...Synopsis...

500 mb short wave producing a few t-storms into eastern Montana
and southwest ND at 08z. Light rain showers (more sprinkles than
anything) extending east in the mid clouds associated with this
wave into central and parts of eastern ND. Few light
showers/trace of precipitation will brush the SW fcst area thru
12z as it moves into SD.

Upstream is a 500 mb short wave rotating south around a larger
upper low moving into far NW Ontario. This short wave has been
well advertised and will drop south thru the Red River valley
this aftn. A few showers with this feature approaching Winnipeg
at 08z. All short term models indicate an isolated to scattered
coverage of showers and a few t-storms today spreading south in
the valley and NW MN. Pops were left pretty much as they were in
past forecasts....mostly 15-25 pops. A few areas may need to be
upped once where the better chances of precip are determined.

A couple hundred CAPE in the aftn with highs in the 70s. Enough
instability and 0-6 km bulk shear of 35 kts for some thunder
but no severe storms anticipated.

This wave and associated isold-scat precipitation ends early
this evening in MN. Skies clear out overnight.

High pressure in control Wed-Thu, over the area Wed and moves
east Thu with winds turning from light north to light southerly.

Friday and into the weekend 500 mb pattern shows a sharp ridge
and warmth into Alberta and NW Canada, with a trough in eastern
Canada and the northeast US/Great Lakes. Fcst area will be in
the north flow on backside of upper trough to the east and on
the front side of the ridge to the west. Indications are a few
rather weak short waves will drop south in north flow thru the
area and just enough instability of 1000-1500 j/kg in the
afternoons, low pop for t-storms Fri-Sun afternoons. No severe
weather anticipated as dew pts and return flow of instability
from the south will be limited.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR thru the pd. Expecting likely CU deck to be broken at times
in coverage Northeast ND and northern MN midday and aftn....this
outside the area of thicker clouds into Lake of the Woods area.
VFR bases are anticipated. North-northwest wind today increasing
to 10-18 kts then diminishing tonight. Few showers or t-storms
around and will update TAFs as timing of any precip is clearer.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle/Spender
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle