Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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542 FXUS62 KFFC 080851 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 451 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 449 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory is in effect for central and eastern GA from 11 am to 8 pm. Heat indices above 105 will be possible. - Diurnal convection is expected to be more suppressed today. This is part of why heat advisory was issued, as convective debris will be less present. Still, some afternoon storms will be possible across north and central Georgia, a few of which could be strong. Forecast: A few showers and thunderstorms continue to progress through east central Georgia this morning thanks to what is left of MCS that pushed through eastern portion of the state last night. In the wake of the MCS we are seeing some very patchy fog and low cloud ceilings this morning. Not anticipating fog to become widespread enough for any product issuance, but will continue to monitor. Today, hires guidance is showing relatively little afternoon convection compared to previous days (with the exception of the FV3, but it looks quite overdone). Several factors seem to back up a lower coverage solution - overnight MCS has worked over good portion of the area that will take some time to recover to start. This will likely help delay onset of convection. In addition, the pattern is favoring some mid level subsidence, with cut off low to the east and Beryl making landfall to the west and moving north, well away from the CWA. All this said, moisture is copious. PWATs remain very high across much of north and central Georgia (2+") and surface dewpoints are surging well into the 70s yet again this afternoon. Convective T will still be achievable, so some afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Shear remains practically non-existent at less than 20 kts 0-6km and the moist adiabatic profiles are not conducive to impressive lapse rates, so not expecting much severe weather, but a strong thunderstorm or two will still be possible. Heavy rainfall rates will again be a concern, and similar to today, storms will be capable of 1-2+" an hour rates, which will be capable of some flash flooding under the right conditions. Given the aforementioned reduced coverage of precipitation today, heat advisory is necessary in part of central and eastern GA. Most areas in the advisory will approach heat indices at or above 105 by the afternoon. WBGT values are also quite elevated in this area, between 88-90, demonstrating how high the humidity is. Please use caution if working or exercising outdoors. See advisory for more information. Tomorrow looks very similar to forecast for today. Convection looks to be limited thanks to some subsidence present as what will be the remnants of Beryl slides to the NW of the CWA. It looks to be just as hot and humid, so heat advisories may be necessary again. Have chosen to substantially lower PoPs compared to multimodel statistical ensemble (NBM). Lusk && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 449 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 At the onset of the extended forecast period on Wednesday, the remnants of Beryl will be lifting well to our north from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes region. As this occurs, considerably drier air will wrap southward in its wake into the forecast area. Dewpoints in the 60s and associated drier precipitable water values of 1 to 1.5" (and perhaps even sub 1") will filter into much of the state from Wednesday into Thursday. In the presence of this considerably drier airmass, PoPs will be on a significant downward trend on both Wednesday and Thursday. PoPs were adjusted a bit below NBM with this trend likely to continue over the coming forecast cycles. From Friday into the weekend, mainly isolated to widely scattered diurnal PoPs are favored given no focus for any widespread increase in coverage. The infiltration of the aforementioned drier airmass will also provide a welcome relief from the stifling, swampy conditions of late. Daytime highs will dip slightly by Wednesday and Thursday, but the most noticeable impact will be lower heat index values amid more tolerable dewpoints. In fact, by Thursday into Friday, triple digit heat index values will likely be virtually eliminated across the CWA - a welcome change. Additionally, morning lows in the 60s are increasingly likely across north Georgia by Thursday and Friday, which would feel practically fall-like as compared to recent conditions. RW && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 228 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 SHRA and TSRA have come to an end at all TAF sites. IFR/LIFR cigs are already building in across east GA including AHN and should spread into metro TAF sites over next few hours. These will end by 14Z-15Z time period. Diurnal storms will be possible across all sites during afternoon. Chance of low cigs again Tuesday morning, but lower confidence compared to this morning. Winds will be light through the period as a boundary sits near airport, but generally from east side. Could see brief wind shift to west side during late afternoon, however. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium tomorrow morning cigs. High all others. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 94 74 95 75 / 50 30 50 30 Atlanta 94 76 94 76 / 50 30 50 20 Blairsville 89 69 88 70 / 60 30 60 30 Cartersville 97 74 95 74 / 50 20 50 30 Columbus 95 76 96 77 / 50 30 50 10 Gainesville 93 74 93 75 / 50 30 50 40 Macon 94 74 95 76 / 50 20 40 10 Rome 97 74 95 75 / 40 20 50 30 Peachtree City 95 74 95 74 / 50 30 40 20 Vidalia 92 76 94 76 / 50 30 60 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ036>039-047>051-058>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Lusk