475
FXUS62 KFFC 141046
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
646 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

No major weather impacts or forecast concerns expected in the short
term period.

Pattern fairly static during the period with upper ridge centered
near CO/NM and another elongated ridge extending from the northern
Gulf into the central north Atlantic. In between the two features is
a weakness in height field with moisture slowly streaming from the
western Gulf back east into the southern states.

With the increasing moisture, coverage of diurnal convection
expected to increase. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should remain < 20%
today but increase to 30-40% Monday and even higher the rest of
the week. Unfortunately, temps will remain well above normal with
max temps 96-100F over the entire CWA today and Monday. Dewpoints
mainly low to mid 60s this afternoon with some mixing of drier air
aloft but a bit higher Monday. Could approach or exceed Heat
Advisory criteria on Monday, esp over middle Georgia.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

At a glance:

-A few more days of hot weather.

-Showers and thunderstorms will return on Wednesday and continue
through the week.

Heat indices could exceed 105 in parts of eastern Georgia on Tuesday
afternoon across eastern Georgia. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 70s keeping things feeling toasty.

A trough in what is otherwise weak zonal flow will enter the south
east and stall out over the gulf coast. Showers in thunderstorms
will be possible for the southern portion of the CWA on Tuesday
afternoon, and remain the lifting mechanism for afternoon storms for
the rest of the forecast period; slowly expanding it`s effects to
the rest of the CWA.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range
Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we
could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the
1 to 2 inch range and would not be surprised to see some isolated
higher totals especially across central GA. Widespread severe
weather is not expected, but a few afternoon storms could be strong
with gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast with sct cumulus
after 16Z around 6-8kft and isolated SHRA/TSRA developing after
20Z. With coverage less than 20% expected, not enough to include
in forecast but have included VCSH. Sfc winds W to WNW at 4-7kts
after 15Z becoming light and variable after 01Z.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium-High confidence on SHRA/TSRA coverage remaining below
threshold to include in TAF.
High confidence on all other elements.


SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  99  74  97 /  10  30  30  50
Atlanta         77  97  75  95 /  20  40  40  60
Blairsville     69  91  69  90 /  20  50  30  60
Cartersville    74  98  73  96 /  10  40  30  60
Columbus        77  99  76  97 /  20  50  40  60
Gainesville     74  97  75  95 /  20  30  30  50
Macon           75  99  75  97 /  20  40  30  50
Rome            73  98  73  96 /  10  40  30  60
Peachtree City  74  97  73  95 /  20  40  30  60
Vidalia         77  99  76  97 /  20  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...SNELSON