262
FXUS62 KFFC 090616
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
216 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Key messages:

  - Heat Advisory is in effect for central and eastern GA until 8
    pm. Heat indices above 105 will be possible.

  - Scattered afternoon and evening storms each day.

This morning started with a solid bank of low clouds SE of the
Atlanta metro area to Macon and points E. These clouds were very
slow to erode and thin, with some clouds making their way into the
metro area. As of this writing, most of these clouds had finally
lifted and thinned. However, this has thus far suppressed deeper
convection and delayed heating. Nevertheless, temperatures are
nearly caught up with the diurnal curve being followed by other
areas, and the Heat Advisory still looks to be on track.

Another consequence of the earlier low clouds has been that
initial shower and thunderstorm development has been on the
periphery of the early cloud area, probably due to both
differential heating and the skewing of the diurnal temperature
curve. Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to eventually fill
in (especially from Macon to Athens), with scattered coverage
across much of the area. Thunderstorm activity may be a bit more
suppressed near and NW of the Atlanta metro area, due to
subsidence on the far NE periphery of Beryl.

As convection dies down overnight, lows will drop to the lower to
mid 70s across most of the area (with mid to upper 60s in the NE
mountains). The forecast for Tue will be very similar to today`s,
with scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms across much of
the area. Daytime highs will also be similar, with perhaps a
slight uptick in heat indices. As a result, another Heat Advisory
may be necessary.

Thunderstorm activity during the short term is mostly expected to
remain below severe limits due to the limited shear, light winds
through most of the column, and the moist profiles. However,
strong to borderline severe winds are possible in the strongest
storms due to precip loading. Additionally, due to the high
precipitable water values and slow storm motion, locally heavy
rains are possible in the strongest or more persistent storms.
/SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The beginning of the long term forecast period kicks off with the
remnants of Beryl skirting off to the northeast across the Ohio
River Valley. Northwest Georgia will experience the effects of the
drier air wrapping around the backside of the system first with
surface dewpoints dropping into the mid 60s. Despite the drier air
beginning to infiltrate the area, diurnal showers and
thunderstorms are still possible on Wednesday primarily for
locations across the northeast Georgia mountains the eastern
central Georgia. As this relatively dry airmass (at least by
summer standards) continues to progress southward Thursday and
Friday, most locations will experience dewpoints in the 60s. This
drier airmass will ultimately limit our afternoon rain and
thunderstorm chances to a slight to low end chance, which won`t
exactly do us any favors regarding making any appreciable areawide
improvement on current drought conditions. However, the drier
airmass will at least give us a brief reprieve from widespread
triple digit heat index values on Thursday and Friday. As surface
moisture returns over the weekend and high pressure builds in
aloft, hot temperatures and triple digit heat index values return
as well as more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Daily
maximum temperatures in the low to mid 90s will warm through the
weekend into the upper 90s for many locations. QPF through the
period has continued to plummet with areas east of the I- 75
corridor seeing up to 3 tenths of an inch with areas west
receiving as little as a trace. Locally higher amounts will be
possible in any thunderstorms that transpire this week.

KAB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR to start TAF period. Could see brief period of MVFR/IFR cigs
impact some sites this morning, but overall probabilities look a
bit lower than previous mornings at this time. TSRA will be
possible during afternoon/evening hours. MVFR/IFR cigs possible
again Wednesday morning. Winds will be SW to W, 5-10 kts through
period.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  93  71  92 /  20  30  20  30
Atlanta         75  90  71  91 /  20  20  10  20
Blairsville     70  84  64  84 /  40  40  30  30
Cartersville    73  89  68  91 /  20  30  10  20
Columbus        77  93  73  94 /  20  30  10  10
Gainesville     75  89  71  89 /  30  30  20  30
Macon           75  93  72  94 /  10  30  10  20
Rome            74  88  69  92 /  30  30  20  20
Peachtree City  74  91  69  92 /  20  20  10  20
Vidalia         76  92  75  92 /  30  60  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....KAB
AVIATION...Lusk