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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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660 FXUS62 KFFC 090900 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 358 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory is in effect for central and eastern GA from 11 am to 8 pm. Heat indices above 105 will be possible. - Diurnally driven convection will again be possible during the afternoon and evening, continuing into the early overnight. - Drier, cooler air will move into the area through Wednesday as the remnants of Beryl passes to the north. Forecast: Rain and thunderstorms overnight have ended. Several inches of rain fell in portions of north Georgia with at least one rain gauge seeing approximately 5" in 3 hours, prompting some flash flood warnings. Otherwise, patchy low clouds and some very patchy haze and fog will be in place until shortly after sunrise. The expectation for today is much of the same as previous days. The air you can wear remains in place, with afternoon temperatures rising into the 90s and dewpoints remaining in the 70s. In central and eastern GA a heat advisory has been issued, as here heat indices should exceed 105, WBGT values will be 88-90, and it frankly has just been uncomfortably hot for the better part of the past week or more. If working or exercising outdoors, please use caution, take frequent breaks, and drink plenty of fluids. And please don`t forget about our furry friends, who need water and breaks as well! Diurnal convection is expected once again during the afternoon and evening hours. Tropical airmass remains in place, and as the remnants of Beryl pass to the north, moisture will continue to pump into the area. CAPE profiles are tall but skinny given poor upper level lapse rates and shear remains well under 20 kts. Severe weather is not anticipated, but some strong wind gusts could occur. Heavy, flooding rain from slow moving or training storms will be the main concern, as previous days have shown these storms in this environment can be extremely efficient rainfall producers. Isolated flash flooding will again be possible. Tomorrow, the extratropical Beryl will drive a "cold" front into the area. Drier air will filter in from the west and temperatures in western GA will be a bit more seasonable. Afternoon storms will remain possible, with best chances in eastern GA as the front progresses through. Lusk && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 358 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 The start of the long term forecast period will be characterized by considerably drier conditions that will infiltrate the area in the wake of a "cold" front pushed southeastward in the wake of Beryl. Amid this considerably drier airmass, convective coverage will be rather limited Thursday and Friday and likely persisting into Saturday. Isolated PoPs will thus be relegated to far southeast zones Thursday with isolated to low chance chance PoPs only creeping slightly back westward from Friday into Saturday. By Sunday into early next week, PoPs then may begin to revert back toward climatological diurnal chances as moisture begins to return back west and northward, though the degree to which this occurs remains to be seen. While the return to drier conditions may not be entirely welcome, the more tolerable afternoon heat index values will likely be more appreciated. In fact, 100+ degree heat index values appear likely to be erased from the CWA both Thursday and Friday afternoons despite high temperatures still ranging well into the 90s. Additionally, morning lows in the 60s across much of north Georgia both Thursday and Friday morning will bring a more refreshing feel to things. Enjoy this brief relief, because temperatures and dewpoints will both be on a gradual upswing by the end of the period. RW && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 159 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR to start TAF period. Could see brief period of MVFR/IFR cigs impact some sites this morning, but overall probabilities look a bit lower than previous mornings at this time. TSRA will be possible during afternoon/evening hours. MVFR/IFR cigs possible again Wednesday morning. Winds will be SW to W, 5-10 kts through period. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High all elements. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 94 74 92 70 / 40 20 30 10 Atlanta 93 75 90 71 / 50 20 20 10 Blairsville 87 70 85 63 / 60 40 40 10 Cartersville 93 74 90 67 / 50 20 30 10 Columbus 94 76 94 72 / 50 20 30 0 Gainesville 92 74 89 70 / 50 30 30 10 Macon 95 76 95 72 / 50 10 30 0 Rome 93 74 90 67 / 50 30 30 10 Peachtree City 94 74 92 69 / 40 20 20 10 Vidalia 94 76 93 75 / 70 30 60 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ024-025-027-035>039-046>051-056>062-066>076-078>086- 089>098-102>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...Lusk