300
FXUS62 KFFC 091843
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Key Messages:

  - Heat Advisory continues for central and eastern GA until 8 pm.
    Heat indices above 105 will be possible.

  - Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to
    spread northeast across the area into the evening hours.

  - Drier, slightly cooler air will move into the area on Wednesday
    as the remnants of Beryl drag a cold front into the area.

Low clouds this morning were thickest across the W and central
portions of the area. These clouds thinned and lifted a bit earlier
than on Monday, giving way to partly cloudy skies. Shower activity
started developing along the AL/GA line and into AL late this
morning. This activity has been moving NE at about 20 mph as deep
layer SW flow has increased in response to Beryl (now a frontal low
over the central MS Valley). This feature will help drag a cold front
through the area late tonight, ushering in drier and slightly cooler
air.

Thunderstorm activity will continue to develop and move across the
area into the evening hours. A line of storms across E Central AL
should arrive in the Atlanta metro area by the early evening if it
holds together. Thunderstorms are mostly expected to remain below
severe limits, as the SW wind has increased rather uniformly through
the atmospheric column, leading to minimal net increases in shear.
However, gusty winds are still possible in the strongest storms. Due
to the faster storm motion, the threat of flooding has decreased.
Nevertheless, precipitable water values close to 2" will still lead to
brief heavy rains and the potential of localized flooding with the
strongest storms.

Rains will mostly come to an end by late evening. However, lingering
showers are still possible along and just ahead of the surface front
as it pushes SE overnight. Low temperatures Wed morning will range
from the upper 60s NW of the Atlanta metro area to the mid 70s across
the S.

Dry air will continue to infiltrate the area on Wed, with isolated to
scattered PoPs confined to areas SE of a line from Columbus to Macon
to Sparta. High temperatures will range from near 80 in the highest
terrain of the NE to near 90 in the Atlanta metro area and the lower
to mid 90s SE of Columbus and Macon. Dew points will drop into the
mid 60s across most of the area save the extreme SE. As a result,
heat indices will range from the upper 80s in the NW to just above
100 in the extreme SE. It will feel 10 to 15 degrees cooler across
much of the area, which will be a welcome change. In addition, W winds
will gust to 15 to 18 mph during the afternoon. Low temperatures Wed
night will be a bit cooler than tonight`s, ranging from the lower
60s in the NE mountains to the mid 70s in the extreme SE.

SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

No significant changes made to the long term forecast with this
forecast update. Drier air will continue to filter into the region
following the departure of Beryl. This will limit rain and thunder
chances and keep heat indices in the 90s on Thursday. Isolated rain
and thunder chances begin to creep back into the area Friday and
Saturday -- best chances across the eastern and far southern portions
of the forecast area. By early next week we look to return to more
of a `summertime` pattern, with diurnally driven afternoon convection
and warmer daytime temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to
steadily trend back up next week with forecast high temperatures in
the upper 90s (approaching 100) for several Central Georgia
locations. Stay tuned...

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Isolated to scattered showers have been developing across the area
early this afternoon, with thunderstorms already firing over E
Central AL and SW GA. Deep layer winds have increased out of the SW,
and convection is progressing steadily to the NE. As a result, have
adjusted start and end times to thunderstorms this afternoon a bit
earlier. SW to W winds should continue through most of the night,
which should decrease coverage of low cigs late tonight and also keep
cig heights a bit higher.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium for morning cigs, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  92  69  93 /  20  10   0  10
Atlanta         74  90  71  93 /  20  10   0  10
Blairsville     69  83  62  88 /  50  10   0  10
Cartersville    71  89  67  93 /  20   0   0  10
Columbus        76  93  73  96 /  20  20   0  10
Gainesville     75  89  70  92 /  30  10   0  10
Macon           75  95  72  96 /  10  20   0  10
Rome            72  89  68  93 /  20   0   0  10
Peachtree City  73  91  69  93 /  20  10   0  10
Vidalia         77  94  75  94 /  20  50   0  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ024-025-027-
035>039-046>051-056>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SEC