Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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399 FXUS62 KFFC 092351 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 751 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory continues for central and eastern GA until 8 pm. Heat indices above 105 will be possible. - Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to spread northeast across the area into the evening hours. - Drier, slightly cooler air will move into the area on Wednesday as the remnants of Beryl drag a cold front into the area. Low clouds this morning were thickest across the W and central portions of the area. These clouds thinned and lifted a bit earlier than on Monday, giving way to partly cloudy skies. Shower activity started developing along the AL/GA line and into AL late this morning. This activity has been moving NE at about 20 mph as deep layer SW flow has increased in response to Beryl (now a frontal low over the central MS Valley). This feature will help drag a cold front through the area late tonight, ushering in drier and slightly cooler air. Thunderstorm activity will continue to develop and move across the area into the evening hours. A line of storms across E Central AL should arrive in the Atlanta metro area by the early evening if it holds together. Thunderstorms are mostly expected to remain below severe limits, as the SW wind has increased rather uniformly through the atmospheric column, leading to minimal net increases in shear. However, gusty winds are still possible in the strongest storms. Due to the faster storm motion, the threat of flooding has decreased. Nevertheless, precipitable water values close to 2" will still lead to brief heavy rains and the potential of localized flooding with the strongest storms. Rains will mostly come to an end by late evening. However, lingering showers are still possible along and just ahead of the surface front as it pushes SE overnight. Low temperatures Wed morning will range from the upper 60s NW of the Atlanta metro area to the mid 70s across the S. Dry air will continue to infiltrate the area on Wed, with isolated to scattered PoPs confined to areas SE of a line from Columbus to Macon to Sparta. High temperatures will range from near 80 in the highest terrain of the NE to near 90 in the Atlanta metro area and the lower to mid 90s SE of Columbus and Macon. Dew points will drop into the mid 60s across most of the area save the extreme SE. As a result, heat indices will range from the upper 80s in the NW to just above 100 in the extreme SE. It will feel 10 to 15 degrees cooler across much of the area, which will be a welcome change. In addition, W winds will gust to 15 to 18 mph during the afternoon. Low temperatures Wed night will be a bit cooler than tonight`s, ranging from the lower 60s in the NE mountains to the mid 70s in the extreme SE. SEC && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 No significant changes made to the long term forecast with this forecast update. Drier air will continue to filter into the region following the departure of Beryl. This will limit rain and thunder chances and keep heat indices in the 90s on Thursday. Isolated rain and thunder chances begin to creep back into the area Friday and Saturday -- best chances across the eastern and far southern portions of the forecast area. By early next week we look to return to more of a `summertime` pattern, with diurnally driven afternoon convection and warmer daytime temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to steadily trend back up next week with forecast high temperatures in the upper 90s (approaching 100) for several Central Georgia locations. Stay tuned... 07 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 A few showers left across the area but looks like we may be just about done for the evening. Some of these showers may move across some of the TAF sites but they should end by 02z. Ceilings are mainly in the VFR range and will continue to improve over the next few hours. Will see some MVFR ceilings move in close to sunrise with the frontal boundary moving through but they should lift back into the VFR range just after sunrise. Winds will stay mainly out of the SW over night turning to the West around sunrise then to the NW with the frontal passage. Wind speeds will stay in the 6-12kt range through the period. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 75 92 69 93 / 20 10 0 10 Atlanta 74 90 71 93 / 20 10 0 10 Blairsville 69 83 62 88 / 50 10 0 10 Cartersville 71 89 67 93 / 20 0 0 10 Columbus 76 93 73 96 / 20 20 0 10 Gainesville 75 89 70 92 / 30 10 0 10 Macon 75 95 72 96 / 10 20 0 10 Rome 72 89 68 93 / 20 0 0 10 Peachtree City 73 91 69 93 / 20 10 0 10 Vidalia 77 94 75 94 / 20 50 0 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ024-025-027- 035>039-046>051-056>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...01