Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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537 FXUS62 KFFC 151125 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 725 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Fairly stagnant upr lvl pattern across the SE region with a well- defined ridge across the Four Corners. A weaker upr ridge sits across the Gulf of Mexico/south FL/Bahamas areas with a weakness between these two features over the ArkLaMiss and Tennessee areas. Deepening moisture (PWAT values increase >2.0 inches later today) will help trigger/support scattered convection across the area as upr level energy traverses the area within weak southwest low-to-mid lvl flow. Locally heavy rain will the primary concern given high PWAT values. Another very warm/humid day will exist with much of north and central GA seeing peak heat indices between 98F and 105F this afternoon. A few areas (east-central and southeast counties) could be even warmer but an expected increase storm coverage should minimize widespread 105+F heat indices, thus no Heat-related headlines needed at this time. Little change in the forecast for Tuesday except for higher dewpoints, more cloud-cover and slightly broader coverage of storms. Despite higher dewpoints, temperatures are expected to be several degrees lower (compared to today) due to the cloud-cover and storm coverage. DJN.83 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 At a glance: -Showers and thunderstorms will return late Tuesday and into Wednesday and continue through the week. -High temps are expected to fall to within climatological normal over the long term. The end of what has been a rough heat wave is finally in sight. A cold front is expected to arrive by Tuesday/Wednesday and stall across the southeast for the remainder of the long term. Temperatures will need a few days to cool off, but by Thursday the front will have worked it`s way far enough south that we should see temps fall back into the low 90s and upper 80s. We may even touch the upper 70s if you`re luck enough to live in the mountains. Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the 1 to 2 inch range and would not be surprised to see some isolated higher totals especially across central GA. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few afternoon storms could be strong with gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Vaughn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected today. Mid to high level clouds blanket much of North Georgia this morning and a nice Cu field is expected to begin developing between 15-17z. Better coverage of scattered convection is also expected this afternoon/early evening with TEMPOs covering the 20-00z timeframe. Timing may be a little later at AHN so maintained a PROB30 for not but will reevaluate in a future update. Winds will remain out of the SW/W 5-10kts with gusts possible amidst any tsra. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the main threats. Low clouds will be possible overnight/early Tuesday esp. in areas receiving rainfall. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence on timing/coverage of convection and low cigs overnight. High confidence on all other elements. DJN.83/07 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 73 95 74 94 / 30 50 30 70 Atlanta 74 93 75 92 / 40 60 30 80 Blairsville 68 88 68 87 / 30 70 30 90 Cartersville 72 95 73 94 / 30 60 30 80 Columbus 75 96 76 95 / 40 70 20 80 Gainesville 74 93 74 92 / 30 50 30 80 Macon 73 96 75 95 / 40 60 20 70 Rome 73 95 73 94 / 30 60 30 80 Peachtree City 72 94 73 92 / 40 60 30 80 Vidalia 75 96 77 95 / 30 60 20 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJN.83 LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...DJN.83