403
FXUS62 KFFC 161539
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1139 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024


.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Seeing a cluster of showers and thunderstorms about to affect
North Georgia coming over from Alabama in the next couple of
hours. This was not showing up in the models but overall still
seeing the cu field pop up which should lead into the afternoon
thunderstorms for the area on schedule with what is in the
forecast. Temps have been a bit cooler especially in that NW
Georgia area due to the cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Temps are running about 3-7F degrees cooler than this time last
night thanks to the storms that covered a good portion of north and
central GA yesterday afternoon/evening. The upper level pattern
remains rather unchanged in the last 24-hours with moisture and
remnant boundaries re-circulating around a nearly stationary low-to-
mid lvl high along the AL/FL Gulf coast.

Daytime heating will trigger another round of showers/storms this
afternoon within moist/unstable airmass. Max temps will be a few
degrees lower than Monday but dewpts are up a few degrees resulting
in fairly similar peak Heat Index values today in the 98-105F range
with isolated values as high as 108F possible.

By tomorrow (Wednesday), we begin to see the affects of a deeper
longwave upr trough digging across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
regions. Better synoptic-scale forcing enters the area as remnant
low-lvl cold pools/boundaries from upstream MCS`s become more of a
focus for convection across north/central GA. Overall severe threat
remains low but cannot rule out isolated stronger wind gusts as
MUCAPE gets up into the 1500-2000 J/KG range and low to mid-lvl
winds increase ahead of upr trough.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

At a glance:

-We begin our much needed heat break.

-Showers and thunderstorms will be likely every afternoon.

The long term kicks off on Wednesday and temps are still expected to
climb into the mid 90s, but by Thursday the front will have worked
it`s way far enough south that we should see temps fall back into
the low 90s and upper 80s; with some high 70s in our mountain areas.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range
Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we
could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the
2 inch range with locally higher amounts expected for isolated
areas. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few
afternoon storms could warrant a SVR warning with winds being the
primary concern. Given MU CAPE values in the vicinity of 2000+ J/KG
most of our afternoon convection will likely have strong winds,
periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail this morning. Scattered convection is
expected to initiate between 17-19z with enough coverage to
warrant TEMPO groups at all TAF sites this afternoon. Gusty winds
possible along with pockets of heavy rain with the strongest
storms. Conditions improve after 23-00z but could see a few
showers redevelop overnight. Added VCSH (for ATL) around 06z to
account for low-chance POPs.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium for convection.
High all other elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  94  72  92 /  20  60  50  80
Atlanta         75  92  73  90 /  20  70  60  80
Blairsville     68  87  67  84 /  30  80  70  90
Cartersville    72  94  71  90 /  20  80  60  90
Columbus        75  96  75  94 /  20  70  40  80
Gainesville     74  92  73  90 /  30  70  50  80
Macon           73  96  74  94 /  20  60  40  80
Rome            73  94  71  89 /  30  80  60  90
Peachtree City  73  94  71  92 /  30  70  50  80
Vidalia         76  96  76  95 /  30  60  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...DJN.83