877
FXUS62 KFFC 161737
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
137 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Temps are running about 3-7F degrees cooler than this time last
night thanks to the storms that covered a good portion of north and
central GA yesterday afternoon/evening. The upper level pattern
remains rather unchanged in the last 24-hours with moisture and
remnant boundaries re-circulating around a nearly stationary low-to-
mid lvl high along the AL/FL Gulf coast.

Daytime heating will trigger another round of showers/storms this
afternoon within moist/unstable airmass. Max temps will be a few
degrees lower than Monday but dewpts are up a few degrees resulting
in fairly similar peak Heat Index values today in the 98-105F range
with isolated values as high as 108F possible.

By tomorrow (Wednesday), we begin to see the affects of a deeper
longwave upr trough digging across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
regions. Better synoptic-scale forcing enters the area as remnant
low-lvl cold pools/boundaries from upstream MCS`s become more of a
focus for convection across north/central GA. Overall severe threat
remains low but cannot rule out isolated stronger wind gusts as
MUCAPE gets up into the 1500-2000 J/KG range and low to mid-lvl
winds increase ahead of upr trough.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

At a glance:

-We begin our much needed heat break.

-Showers and thunderstorms will be likely every afternoon.

The long term kicks off on Wednesday and temps are still expected to
climb into the mid 90s, but by Thursday the front will have worked
it`s way far enough south that we should see temps fall back into
the low 90s and upper 80s; with some high 70s in our mountain areas.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range
Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we
could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the
2 inch range with locally higher amounts expected for isolated
areas. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few
afternoon storms could warrant a SVR warning with winds being the
primary concern. Given MU CAPE values in the vicinity of 2000+ J/KG
most of our afternoon convection will likely have strong winds,
periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Broken line of thunderstorms moving east may affect the ATL metro
in the next hour. An abundant cu field is becoming SCT- BKN at
4kft currently and expecting scattered convection to pop up across
the area in the next hour or two. Winds stay from the west through
the TAF period. Thunderstorms are expected to be more widespread
in coverage tomorrow beginning ~17z and lasting through 23-00z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on TS coverage and timing.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  94  72  92 /  20  50  40  80
Atlanta         75  92  73  90 /  20  60  50  80
Blairsville     68  87  67  84 /  30  70  70  90
Cartersville    72  94  71  90 /  20  70  60  90
Columbus        75  96  75  94 /  20  60  40  80
Gainesville     74  92  73  90 /  20  60  50  80
Macon           73  96  74  94 /  20  60  40  80
Rome            73  94  71  89 /  20  80  60  90
Peachtree City  73  94  71  92 /  20  50  50  80
Vidalia         76  96  76  95 /  20  50  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Hernandez