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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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324 FXUS62 KFFC 190140 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 940 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...Evening Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue for the next several hours along (and just behind) the southeastward- advancing cold front. Made just a few tweaks to the forecast to better capture precipitation trends, otherwise we remain on track for this evening. Severe potential has diminished with loss of heating, but frequent lightning and gusty winds are possible in any lingering storms overnight. 96 && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Convection is again firing across the area in a rinse and repeat type forecast from the past couple of days. Much of north Georgia is being affected currently but that should move southward and begin to affect the remainder of central Georgia. Again there are sfc based CAPE values at 2500-3000 J/kg but shear values are again nonexistent so again a rinse and repeat forecast with storms going up and then down. Tomorrow seems a bit more interesting but only marginally so. For the past few days we have been under the influence of mainly diurnally driven convection, but tomorrow the front begins to sag southward which will provide some bit of weak forcing for the thunderstorms. This along with a potential weak shortwave depicted swinging northeast from the lower MS valley could result in more organized convection tomorrow. Still looking at shear values that aren`t overly impressive (up to 25kts) so not really expecting any widespread severe weather. Storms could have a bit more organization though and movement with these values and we could see locally severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning still being the main threats. One positive of this rain and cloud cover is that temps are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s for much of the area tomorrow instead of the 90s. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Persistent pattern remain in place through the long term forecast into the middle of next week. Large dome of high pressure looks to remain fixed over the western half of the CONUS, keep longwave troughing with embedded shortwaves over the eastern half. Given the summer position of the jet, this acts to keep a stream of moisture flowing around the south of the Bermuda High into the CWA. The long term remains as it has through this entire week - wet, damp, moist, pick your favorite word. Diurnally driven convection looks to be on tap across the area each afternoon, with enough moisture around that some things may linger into the overnight. Any given day will have to be monitored for any uptick in severe potential that would be dependent upon remnant outflows and any MCV production from the previous day`s convection. Shear remains quite low overall, with 0-6 km values in forecast soundings remaining below 25 kts, but an MCV could certainly modify that in a way that the coarser guidance may not capture. CAPE profiles are long and skinny thanks to a basically moist adiabatic vertical profile that limits lapse rates. Still, day time heating will bring values to 1500-2000+ J/kg, and that can certainly drive some strong wind gusts as a core comes down. Isolated damaging winds can never be ruled out this time of year. Lusk && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Primarily VFR conds to continue. Low-MVFR to IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys to encroach on northern TAF sites from 10-13Z. Otherwise, SCT to BKN cu at 2-4kft. Aftn TSRA expected once again between 18-24Z, with lingering -SHRA/-RA in its wake from 00-01Z on. Winds will be 7kts or less outside of TSRA, favoring the W side during the day, becoming CALM to VRB around due S after 00Z tomorrow. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence AM low ceilings and visibility restrictions. High confidence all other elements. 96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 89 69 88 / 20 80 80 80 Atlanta 71 86 70 85 / 20 80 80 90 Blairsville 65 80 65 80 / 30 80 80 90 Cartersville 68 84 69 85 / 20 80 80 90 Columbus 73 91 71 89 / 40 80 60 80 Gainesville 70 84 70 85 / 20 80 80 90 Macon 71 92 71 90 / 60 80 60 70 Rome 70 85 69 85 / 40 80 70 90 Peachtree City 70 87 69 87 / 20 80 70 80 Vidalia 73 93 74 93 / 30 80 50 80 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...96