537
FXUS62 KFFC 151125
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
725 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Fairly stagnant upr lvl pattern across the SE region with a well-
defined ridge across the Four Corners. A weaker upr ridge sits
across the Gulf of Mexico/south FL/Bahamas areas with a weakness
between these two features over the ArkLaMiss and Tennessee areas.

Deepening moisture (PWAT values increase >2.0 inches later today)
will help trigger/support scattered convection across the area as
upr level energy traverses the area within weak southwest low-to-mid
lvl flow. Locally heavy rain will the primary concern given high
PWAT values. Another very warm/humid day will exist with much of
north and central GA seeing peak heat indices between 98F and 105F
this afternoon. A few areas (east-central and southeast counties)
could be even warmer but an expected increase storm coverage should
minimize widespread 105+F heat indices, thus no Heat-related
headlines needed at this time.

Little change in the forecast for Tuesday except for higher
dewpoints, more cloud-cover and slightly broader coverage of storms.
Despite higher dewpoints, temperatures are expected to be several
degrees lower (compared to today) due to the cloud-cover and storm
coverage.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

At a glance:

-Showers and thunderstorms will return late Tuesday and into
Wednesday and continue through the week.

-High temps are expected to fall to within climatological normal
over the long term.

The end of what has been a rough heat wave is finally in sight. A
cold front is expected to arrive by Tuesday/Wednesday and stall
across the southeast for the remainder of the long term.
Temperatures will need a few days to cool off, but by Thursday the
front will have worked it`s way far enough south that we should see
temps fall back into the low 90s and upper 80s. We may even touch
the upper 70s if you`re luck enough to live in the mountains.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range
Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we
could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the
1 to 2 inch range and would not be surprised to see some isolated
higher totals especially across central GA. Widespread severe
weather is not expected, but a few afternoon storms could be strong
with gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected today. Mid to high level clouds
blanket much of North Georgia this morning and a nice Cu field is
expected to begin developing between 15-17z. Better coverage of
scattered convection is also expected this afternoon/early evening
with TEMPOs covering the 20-00z timeframe. Timing may be a little
later at AHN so maintained a PROB30 for not but will reevaluate in
a future update. Winds will remain out of the SW/W 5-10kts with
gusts possible amidst any tsra. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds will be the main threats. Low clouds will be possible
overnight/early Tuesday esp. in areas receiving rainfall.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium confidence on timing/coverage of convection and low cigs
overnight.
High confidence on all other elements.

DJN.83/07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  95  74  94 /  30  50  30  70
Atlanta         74  93  75  92 /  40  60  30  80
Blairsville     68  88  68  87 /  30  70  30  90
Cartersville    72  95  73  94 /  30  60  30  80
Columbus        75  96  76  95 /  40  70  20  80
Gainesville     74  93  74  92 /  30  50  30  80
Macon           73  96  75  95 /  40  60  20  70
Rome            73  95  73  94 /  30  60  30  80
Peachtree City  72  94  73  92 /  40  60  30  80
Vidalia         75  96  77  95 /  30  60  20  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...DJN.83