504
FXUS62 KFFC 071752
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
152 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Key Messages:

  - Diurnally driven convection will impact much of north and
    central GA Sunday and Monday. Severe weather is not expected.
    A few strong storms could occur.

  - Heat advisory has not been issued for today, but it will still
    be hot and humid. Heat indices will rise to the low 100s in many
    locations before afternoon storms provide some relief.

Forecast:

Rainfall and thunderstorms have come to an end this morning in most
locations. Main problems will be haze and developing fog in some
locations. This should be patchy through sunrise, but we are already
seeing some impacts in and around the metro and some surrounding
locations. If trends continue, SPS for patchy dense fog may be
issued.

CWA is stuck in the middle between a cut off low to the east and
Tropical Storm Beryl to the west. Flow at the surface will be from
the south to southeast, allowing tropical moisture to continue to
filter into Georgia between these two features as the surface
boundary that moved in yesterday continues to slowly retreat back to
the north. PWATs remain well in excess of 2", surface dewpoints are
well into the 70s in all but far N GA, and day time heating
continues to bring temperatures well into the 90s. Put all that
together, and you`ve got a set of miserable Georgia summer days.
Diurnal convection will continue both today and tomorrow. The good
news is this will likely limit afternoon heating to an extent - heat
indices are expected to remain below advisory thresholds thanks in
part to afternoon storms and cloud cover/convective debris. Still,
they will rise into the low 100s in many locations. Given we`ve seen
numerous days in a row of unusual heat (even for July), please
continue to use caution if spending time outdoors.

Storms look to be pretty typical for summer, and severe weather is
not expected, though will never rule out a strong to severe wind
gust that could bring down a few trees in Georgia this time of
year. Afternoon CAPE values are forecast to be 1500-2500 J/kg, and
CAPE profiles are tall but skinny thanks to poor mid and upper
level lapse rates given our moist environment. Shear remains poor
as upper level jet remains well to the north. Bigger concern from
storms will be rainfall. Lack of shear means little motion to
storms that do form, and tropical moisture in place will make for
very efficient rainfall producers. Storms yesterday regularly
showed 1-2+" an hour rainfall rates, which can lead to localized
flooding or even flash flooding in some locations.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The forecast area will initially remain entrenched in a humid and
summerlike airmass to start the extended forecast period as we
remain on the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
Meanwhile, model agreement is increasing regarding the eventual
track of the remnants of Beryl, which by Tuesday afternoon are
expected to be lifting from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley to our northwest. Based on this forecast, no direct Beryl
impacts are anticipated locally, and diurnally-enhanced scattered
convection can be anticipated again on Tuesday.

Beyond Tuesday, things look to be trending drier as compared to
previous forecast iterations. With the track of Beryl`s remnants
more likely to pass well to our north into the Ohio Valley and
toward the Great Lakes region, enhanced moisture associated with the
lingering circulation would bypass the area, and drier air would
instead wrap south of the system. As such, PWATs would be more
likely to drop into the 1 to 1.5" range, at least in the northwest
half of the area, from Wednesday to Friday as compared to early week
2+" values. PoPs have thus been adjusted lower during the latter
half of the work week, mainly into the chance range, with the
higher PoPs shunted into the southeastern half of the area.

Temperatures will remain hot with highs ranging from the low to mid
90s through the week. However, if the aforementioned drier airmass
trend is realized, heat index values would begin to trend downward a
bit by midweek with 100+ degree values diminished and focused
farther southeast.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Lower ceilings this morning took their time lifting and scattering
through early afternoon, but convection has now started to fire
over south and northeast Georgia. For the 18Z TAF, have pushed
back the start of TS TEMPO to generally 20-23Z to accommodate the
trend in delayed start to convection. Enhanced storm coverage
expected over far northeast Georgia late could TS to KAHN area
22-01Z. Monday morning, widespread stratus expected, with LIFR-IFR
ceilings after 08Z. Lifting expected by late morning, with
diurnal storms again after 18Z. Light, variable winds will
generally be E-SE, with a shift to the NW expected Monday after
16Z. Speeds 3-8kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on timing of storms to KATL this afternoon.
Medium on ceilings Monday after 08Z.
High on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  91  73  95 /  50  70  30  50
Atlanta         75  93  75  94 /  40  70  30  50
Blairsville     69  87  69  88 /  40  80  30  60
Cartersville    73  94  73  95 /  30  70  20  50
Columbus        76  94  75  95 /  40  70  20  50
Gainesville     74  91  74  93 /  40  70  20  50
Macon           75  92  75  95 /  40  70  20  50
Rome            74  95  74  95 /  30  60  20  50
Peachtree City  73  93  73  95 /  40  70  30  50
Vidalia         75  92  75  92 /  40  70  20  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...31