440
FXUS62 KFFC 171903
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
303 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Models have performed better today with scattered convection firing.
The atmosphere has recovered quickly from the showers this morning
with temps in the low 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. That along with
CAPE values ~2500-3000 J/kg and pockets of 3500 J/kg mean these
storms have plenty of energy to work with this afternoon. Shear is
still basically non existent so although we could see a couple of
severe storms, not expecting anything widespread. Lapse rates are
decent but not overly impressive so wouldn`t be surprised if we saw a
few reports of pea size hail with any storms that become strong
along with the other threats of gusty winds (mainly sub severe) and
frequent lightning. PWATs from the morning sounding show ~1.8" which
means that these storms will also be efficient rainfall producers.
Despite this, we are only looking at isolated pockets of up to 0.25"
mainly associated with the convection at this time.

Tomorrow we should start to see some effects from the front as it
drapes just north of the area. This should result in increased
convection in north GA and the normal diurnal convection should
continue into the afternoon for the remainder of GA. Temps will
again be in the low to mid 90s for most of the area with limited
relief if you happen to be affected by a shower.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The trend towards wetter weather doesn`t look to abate with this
forecast update. Stalled front will likley be to the north of the
area Friday with remnant outflow from copious storms Thursday
somewhere in the state. This will provide a focus for additonal
convection with best chances in central GA. Some uncertainty on
coverage in northern GA, but with moisture likely present if front
remains north, hard to rule out airmass storms. Into the weekend,
little change in the upper air pattern means that southerly flow
from the Gulf will continue to move into the area, bringing with it
the lovely moist airmass. Airmass thunderstorms expected to
continue. Open tropical wave moves in Monday/Tuesday and looks to
bring even more moist air to the party, so the airmass storms should
continue. QPF values continue to be 2-4" over the area through the
period, with much higher amounts possible where storms train or
affect the same areas day by day. WPC has held a Marginal Risk of
flash flooding for Friday, and expect that to likely be the case for
the next few days past if the forecast continues to hold.

Severe concerns remain low overall, but not zero. Will need to see
if the front/remnant outflow can help briefly organize anything on
Friday, but otherwise forecast effective bulk shear values remain
well below the threshold for organized convection. MLCAPE values of
2000+ J/kg will be possible each day per forecasts, so that can
create the potential for taller more persistent updrafts that could
be capable of some isolated damaging wind gusts when they collapse.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Thunderstorms are beginning to pop over the area with a cu field
~4kft. Expecting these scattered storms to prevail through ~23z.
Looking at tomorrow morning, there is a low end chance for showers
to and MVFR CIGS between 08 and 11z. After that, into the
afternoon tomorrow expecting another round of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms to affect the area. Winds will shift to the NW
tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Low to medium on lack of showers and MVFR tomorrow morning.
Medium on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  71  87 /  40  60  50  80
Atlanta         73  91  71  85 /  50  80  50  80
Blairsville     66  84  65  79 /  70  70  40  80
Cartersville    70  91  69  85 /  60  70  40  70
Columbus        73  95  73  90 /  30  80  60  80
Gainesville     73  91  71  83 /  50  70  40  80
Macon           72  95  72  91 /  30  70  60  80
Rome            71  91  70  85 /  60  80  30  70
Peachtree City  71  93  70  86 /  40  80  50  80
Vidalia         75  95  74  94 /  30  60  50  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Hernandez