398
FXUS64 KEWX 072332
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
632 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Partly cloudy to cloudy skies dominate most of the southeast
counties and the Coastal Plains with partly cloudy to mostly sunny
skies across the rest of the local area. A rainband associated with
Beryl is making its present across the southeast counties and
Coastal Plains area. This trend is forecast to continue through this
evening. Can`t rule for some of this activity to get closer to the I-
35 corridor before sunset. Highs are likely to reach the low to
upper 90s over most locations and up to 102-104 range at Del Rio.
Heat index values could reach the 103 to 108 mark mid to late
afternoon.

Now let brief on Beryl and its impacts across South Central Texas
for later tonight into Monday. Beryl still forecast to become a
hurricane before making landfall overnight near the middle Texas
coast between Port O`Connor and Matagorda Island. Latest forecast
has shifted the track slightly to the east and therefore, the
wind and flooding threats have shifted as well to the east. There
is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for DeWitt, Lavaca and
Fayette Counties where tropical storm force winds could occur. A
Flood Watch is also in effect from late tonight through Tuesday
morning for DeWitt, Lavaca, Fayette and Lee Counties. Storm
rainfall totals with the shifting to the east are from 2 to 5
inches and isolated higher amounts. Beryl is forecast to exit our
eastern areas by late Monday morning or early afternoon. Monday`s
highs will be much cooler across the eastern half of South Central
Texas ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s but out along the Rio
Grande expect those highs to range from the upper 90s and up to
105 at Del Rio.

Late Monday evening into the overnight hours, the Rio Grande Plains
and southern Edwards Plateau have an opportunity to get some rain
showers as a cluster of storms pushes from the Pecos area. Overnight
lows are expected to be around the low to upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

By early Tuesday morning, an MCS may be ongoing over the Rio Grande
Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau. A shortwave vort max looks to
swing around the western periphery of Beryl`s upper level wind
field, allowing storms to slide into the western portion of the EWX
CWA. For now, the severe threat is low, but perhaps some gusty winds
will be possible with this complex of storms. Have opted to bump up
PoPs from the NBM in the 12Z-18Z Tue time frame as MCS`s often take
a bit longer to decay through the morning hours. Additional showers
and storms may for Tuesday afternoon in the wake of Hurricane Beryl,
as the shortwave associated with the above MCS slides eastward on
the backside of Beryl. The 12Z HREF does support a shortwave sliding
south and east as well.

Wednesday-Thursday, afternoon highs may be a bit below normal for
early to mid July, as an active pattern continues in the wake of
Beryl. Essentially, Beryl acted to break down our hot and dry
pattern, and will result in a slightly more active mid level pattern
through the remainder of the week. On Wednesday, and inverted trough
over the western Gulf of Mexico looks to move inland, allowing
showers and storms to form on the northern end in the EWX CWA.

Friday and beyond, temperatures will steadily climb back into the
mid to upper 90s, closer to seasonal normals, with slightly lower
rain and storm chances. Nevertheless, the inverted trough mentioned
above looks to slow down on it`s trek inland, so rain and storms
will remain possible Friday into next Saturday as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions continue through the evening at I-35 sites before
ceilings drop to MVFR after 08-09Z as Beryl begins to move closer to
the Texas coast. VFR conditions will remain at DRT with ceilings at
I-35 sites lifting back to VFR sometime mid to late morning. Winds
will increase across the eastern half of the area during the morning
with gusty wind seen through mid to late afternoon for most eastern
areas associated with Beryl. AUS will see the strongest winds with
gusts up to 30 knots expected. Higher gusts will be possible over
the coastal plains. KDRT wind flow stays easterly through the
period. Confidence in rainfall at terminals is low with the best
chances at AUS where a PROB30 group has been included.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  90  74  96 /  20  50  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  89  73  95 /  20  50  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  95  74  96 /  20  30  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            75  90  71  93 /   0  30  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 105  81 100 /   0  10  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  87  71  93 /  10  50  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             76  98  75  96 /   0  10  10  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  92  72  95 /  20  40  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  84  72  91 /  60  80  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  96  76  96 /  10  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           79  98  76  97 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Monday through Tuesday morning for De
Witt-Fayette-Lavaca-Lee.

Tropical Storm Warning for De Witt-Fayette-Lavaca.

&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...27